Coronavirus cases falling in UK

The number of reported cases of coronavirus has fallen for the 6th day in a row in Britain. It is probably no coincidence that the pound found buyers yesterday and is up to USD 1.38 this morning. The Pound has also gained against the Euro (€1.1705 as I write) and others. GBPAUD posted another 14 month high overnight and is holding AUD 1.8745 this morning. GBPNZD is mid-range at NZD 1.9780 and GBPCAD is mid-range too at CAD 1.7345.

Rand still suffering from covid and riots

The GBPZAR rate is still very elevated above ZAR 20.50. Covid is still spreading in South Africa, the impact of that and recent riots have combined to weaken the Rand. So much so that state-owned Mango airlines has filed for bankruptcy protection. The Rand is not out of the woods yet but has started to find some support, so this could be the bargain basement level for buyers.

Today’s data diary has marginally more entries than the Buckingham Palace chapter of the Meghan Markel fan club members. After a quiet morning, we will see US durable goods orders, which should be a tiny bit less positive than last month but still in the growth zone. We will have a speech from the Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Guy Debelle’s thoughts on the delayed recovery of the Aussie economy will be worth a listen.

The day ends with a US consumer confidence index and the US crude oil stock figures. Both can be influential, dependent on how much they diverge from the forecasts. So late UK trade and overnight volatility in the US Dollar are highly likely.

Healthy rise in Australian inflation expected

The Australian Dollar will also be active overnight when Australian inflation data is published at 02:30 GM. There is a feeling this will be very positive indeed. So anything like the 3.8% annual inflation number or more should reverse some of the Aussie Dollar’s losses in the last few weeks. AUD buyers beware.

And before the UK markets open tomorrow, we will get the Nationwide house price index for UK property. Changes in stamp duty have distorted demand and prices, so these are likely to be very positive figures. The Pound is already on a positive trend, so this could accelerate it.

And today is international ‘Take your houseplant for a walk day’. I kid you not. Mine is a lemon tree that I can barely lift, let alone walk around with it. I think I’ll give it a miss.

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