https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AdobeStock_189176670-scaled.jpeg 1708 2560 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/halologo-1.jpg Jason Mcmahon2022-06-29 10:07:162022-06-29 10:07:16Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index predicted to fall
Spanish and German data today, followed by French data tomorrow, will provide the first indications about June inflation for the Eurozone. Data for the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia earlier this morning grabbed attention for being unexpectedly weak, falling to 7.5% y/y from 8.1% y/y.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/oil-prices.jpg 600 1080 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/halologo-1.jpg Jason Mcmahon2022-06-28 09:46:022022-06-28 09:46:02Dallas manufacturing index lowest for 2 years
The Dallas Federal Reserve’s manufacturing index hit minus 17.7 this month. That’s the lowest reading since May 2020. It may peak the attention of the cautious Fed members who are less enthused by the calls for large and rapid interest rate hikes. The US Dollar remains pretty flat despite that news. GBPUSD is $1.2270 and EURUSD is just below $1.06.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/AdobeStock_481994130-scaled.jpeg 1832 2560 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/halologo-1.jpg Jason Mcmahon2022-06-27 10:46:492022-06-27 12:17:32Monday rates déjà vu but we have news
The Monday morning exchange rates look eerily like the ones we saw on Friday. There has been some news however. The International Monetary Fund has cut its global economic growth forecast for 2022 from 3.7% to 2.9% and they are forecasting growth of a reduced 1.7% in 2023 and just 0.8% in 2024, when they believe the slowdown will start to reverse. Not the cheeriest of forecasts is it.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/GBPUSD-notes-on-white-background-scaled.jpeg 1707 2560 Stephanie Wright https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/halologo-1.jpg Stephanie Wright2022-06-24 10:21:192022-06-24 10:21:19Fed’s ‘unconditional’ commitment to curbing inflation
On his second day of testimony to Congress, Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell pledged an ‘unconditional’ commitment to do whatever it takes to stop inflation from getting out of hand. On the same day, Michelle Bowman, who is a member of the Federal Reserve’s board of Governors, called for a 75 basis point hike at the next meeting, followed by several further 50 BP hikes.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Federal-reserve-system-symbol-on-hundred-dollar-bill-closeup-mac-scaled.jpeg 1696 2560 Stephanie Wright https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/halologo-1.jpg Stephanie Wright2022-06-23 10:04:392022-06-23 10:09:27Fed talks a big-hikes game
Jerome Powell, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve was talking about a large interest rate hike in July and his comments were echoed by other members of the Federal Reserve yesterday. The markets are pricing in a 75 basis point hike in July and Mr Powell didn't rule out a full 1% hike to try to temper inflation.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/AdobeStock_254869734-scaled.jpeg 1709 2560 Stephanie Wright https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/halologo-1.jpg Stephanie Wright2022-06-22 09:54:062022-06-22 09:54:06UK inflation pips higher – GBP flat
The consumer price inflation index in the UK rose 9.1% in the year to May. That is marginally higher than April’s figure of 9.0% and we would perhaps have expected sterling strength on the back of that data.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Bank-of-England-facade-in-London-in-the-evening-scaled.jpeg 1707 2560 Stephanie Wright https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/halologo-1.jpg Stephanie Wright2022-06-21 09:37:412022-06-21 09:37:41BOE urged to raise rates faster by MPC member, Mann
Catherine Mann, a member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, voted for a 50 basis point hike at their last meeting. She is urging the central bank’s other committee members to press for higher rates to curb inflation and support the Pound because a weak pound increases inflation due to sterling’s reduced purchasing power.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/AdobeStock_79938204-scaled.jpeg 1820 2560 Stephanie Wright https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/halologo-1.jpg Stephanie Wright2022-06-20 10:33:042022-06-20 10:33:04USD loses ground as investors gain confidence
The darling of the nervous investor class, the US dollar has lost a little ground in the few days as the dust from all the central bank changes has started to settle and the attractiveness of investments outside the US has lured those investors away.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/AdobeStock_73261482-2-scaled.jpeg 1707 2560 Stephanie Wright https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/halologo-1.jpg Stephanie Wright2022-06-17 09:38:232022-06-17 09:38:23BOE hikes 25BP and pledges more
Sterling rose throughout yesterday afternoon after the Bank of England lifted the UK base rate by 0.25% and confirmed it will act aggressively to halt the rise in inflation. 6 of the 9 members of the monetary policy committee voted for a 25 basis point hike while the other three were seeking twice that amount.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/AdobeStock_73330131-scaled.jpeg 1709 2560 Stephanie Wright https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/halologo-1.jpg Stephanie Wright2022-06-16 09:27:402022-06-16 09:42:22Fed raises 75BP – USD weakens
US consumers got squeezed tighter yesterday evening when the Federal Reserve raised their base rate by 75 basis points in an attempt to counter inflation. I have never been convinced that this is a sensible option when the inflation they are seeking to contain is forced upon consumers by events elsewhere rather than through retail exuberance but I am not an advisor to the Fed.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/AdobeStock_224236731-1-scaled.jpeg 1707 2560 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/halologo-1.jpg Jason Mcmahon2022-06-15 09:42:162022-06-15 09:42:16GBP slips again as USD gains
The strength of the US dollar ahead of today's Federal Reserve interest rate decision is a reflection of the fact that investors are expecting at least 50 basis points from the third and potentially 75 basis points. The USD is already attractive as a safe haven currency and as the currency in which the currently excessively expensive commodities are being traded.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/manufacturing-industry-employment.jpg 650 1080 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/halologo-1.jpg Jason Mcmahon2022-06-14 09:38:182022-06-14 09:38:18USD gains as 75BP rise is factored in
The financial markets are pricing in a 90% chance that the US Federal Reserve will hike the US base rate by 75 basis points when they meet on Wednesday. The US Dollar index, which measures the US currency against a basket of others, is the strongest it has been since 2002. No surprise then that the GBPUSD rate is down to $1.2185, the lowest we have seen since May 2020.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/AdobeStock_298649919-scaled.jpeg 1709 2560 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/halologo-1.jpg Jason Mcmahon2022-06-13 09:33:312022-06-13 09:33:31The USD starts the week strong as inflation worsens
Last week ended with the US dollar rallying strongly on the back drop of Fridays highly anticipated report that surprised markets showing inflation at 8.6%, the worst inflation in generations. This lead US stocks, the S&P 500 to the worst weeks drop since January, and 9 out 10 losing weeks.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Euro-Sign.-European-Central-Bank-ECB-scaled.jpeg 1695 2560 Stephanie Wright https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/halologo-1.jpg Stephanie Wright2022-06-10 09:53:492022-06-10 09:53:49ECB to raise interest rates in July
Yesterday, the focus was the European Central Bank’s (ECB) rate decision and subsequent commentary. The bank confirmed its intention to hike interest rates by 25 basis points at its July meeting, with a further hike due in September, the scale of which will be determined by the inflation outlook in the medium term.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/AdobeStock_105310481-1-scaled.jpeg 1707 2560 Stephanie Wright https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/halologo-1.jpg Stephanie Wright2022-06-09 10:10:592022-06-09 10:10:59Interest rates expected to remain unchanged
The European Central Bank's policy update is the topic of today's discussion. At 12:45 pm, the policy decision will be announced, followed by a news conference with President Lagarde at 1:30 pm.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/AdobeStock_274530574-scaled.jpeg 1707 2560 Stephanie Wright https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/halologo-1.jpg Stephanie Wright2022-06-08 10:47:282022-06-08 11:06:11EURUSD stays below 1.0700 despite upbeat EU data
EURUSD has extended its sideways grind near 1.0700 mid-week with investors refraining from making large bets ahead of the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy announcements on Thursday.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/AUD-Dollar-1.jpeg 399 600 Stephanie Wright https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/halologo-1.jpg Stephanie Wright2022-06-07 09:25:422022-06-07 09:25:42RBA hikes to the upper end of expectations
The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted their base rate to 0.85% overnight. That was at the upper end of any forecasts and the statement that accompanied the rise reflected the 5.1% inflation rate and the upward pressure on future inflation and suggested there would be higher interest rates to come.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/AdobeStock_301960161-scaled.jpeg 1700 2560 Stephanie Wright https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/halologo-1.jpg Stephanie Wright2022-06-06 11:00:472022-06-06 11:00:47Dollar & Sterling volatile after US jobs report & on a possible no-confidence vote
Whilst Britain has been partying, (Thank you Ma’am), the rest of the global financial markets have been carrying on regardless. The US dollar has been amongst the more volatile occurrences. US non-farm payrolls grew by 390,000 in May, well above the 325,000 forecasts but down a little on the previous month.