Oil production in USA as oil prices colllpase to below 0$ a barrel in USA for the first time ever, impacting commodities and currencies

Commodity currencies gain strength

Poor PMI figures released by Europe on Friday for the eurozone and the UK give credibility to the idea that further monetary tightening by the ECB and BoE may not be in the cards. The Swiss franc also felt the pressure. Commodity currencies, led by the New Zealand dollar, flexed their muscles.

BoE pause interest rate hikes

The big news of yesterday was that the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, a day after UK inflation surprisingly fell by more than expected. The Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) voted 5-4, in favour of pausing, to leave the cost of borrowing unchanged.
UK to be leader in Green Energy

Pound suffers as inflation declines

The pound suffered another day of significant losses yesterday on the back of a Core Inflation figure that continued to show inflation is in decline in the UK. The forecast figure was expected to show a modest rise to 7.0% due to factors such as bad weather and rising fuel costs...
Bank of England facade in London in the evening. BoE UK interest rate cut concept

Surprising decline in UK inflation

This morning’s UK CPI data for August revealed a surprising further decline in annual inflation, from 6.8% in July to 6.7%. Because of the recent increase in gas prices, economists had anticipated a rise in inflation, but other variables more than countered that.
London records weakest house price growth

GBP recovery knocked by RICS survey

As we suspected, sterling did mount a recovery of sorts yesterday but it has taken a knock again overnight after the release of the worst house price balance survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors since 2009. This index has been trending lower since May 2022 and fell into negative territory in November last year

UK GDP hit by strikes and rain

UK economic data is a bit of a roller coaster at the moment. Having seen upward revisions to the economic growth data for the end of 2021 and the positive impact that had on Sterling, this morning bought disappointing data for July 2023. Strikes by public sector workers in the health service and in schools dragged economic output down in July and the persistent rain did nothing to help the construction and service sectors.
Container ship on the Rhine River

AUD holds strength despite disparate Aussie data

There was a mismatch of data from Australia overnight. The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to minus 1.5%, following on from a minus 0.4% reading in August. However, the NAB business survey showed a reading of 13, up from the 11 rating in the previous month and the strongest result since May.

Euro steady ahead of ECB rate decision

The euro strengthened for the latter part of last week but has levelled off this morning amidst a lack of Eurozone data. Traders are generally preparing for the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, which they will deliver on Thursday.
image of us dollar notes

USD set for longest winning streak since 2014

Improving US economic data has poured cold water on those who think the rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve are due to end. That expectation of a higher US rate has manifested itself into the US dollar strength. In fact, this recent period of strengthening for the US dollar may well be the longest winning streak we have seen since 2014.

Chinese concerns and building approvals drop shrugged off by AUD

After yesterday's stronger-than-expected Australian GDP growth it was a surprise to see a slump of 8.1% in building approvals reducing Australia's trade balance to just over 8 billion in July. However, when you look beyond Australia’s borders, data from elsewhere paints the picture for the whole Asia/Pacific region.
Australian Currency

Aussie growth beats quarterly estimates

The Australian dollar regained some strength in early trade today after the release of Australian economic growth data, which showed 0.4% growth in the three months to June and 2.1% annual growth. Both results beat the market forecasts but it means the annual growth rate slipped from 2.4% in the first quarter.
New Zealand pauses Australia travel bubble

RBA on hold – AUD loses ground

Recent Australian data meant the fact that the Reserve Bank of Australia left their base rate on hold this morning, came as no surprise to the markets. In maintaining their base rate at 4.1% for the second month in a row, the RBA announced it would give them time to consider further data releases before any further moves.

Canada’s economy stagnated in Q2

The GBP/CAD exchange rate had a whipsaw day on Friday when it was revealed that Canada’s economy showed zero growth in the 2nd quarter of the year. This pair dived from CAD 1.7225 to below CAD 1.71 before spiking by a cent, dropping down again and it is back to CAD 1.7145 this morning.

GBP Steady despite housing data

It was inevitable that the persistent interest rate rises from the Bank of England would have an impact on the housing market. Nationwide released data this morning showing house prices in August down 5.3% on the year; the largest fall since July 2009.
USA national flag and the dollar bills. Business and finance concept

US GDP revised downward

The US released their second estimate of Q2 economic growth data yesterday. Q2 growth was downgraded to 2.1% q/q, down from the first estimate of 2.4% but marginally higher than the Q1 figure of 2.0%. We also saw The US personal consumption expenditure index slide to 2.5%, down from 4.1% in the previous month.
Moving Abroad

Australian retail sales show healthy bounce

We are getting interesting data from Australia right now; signs maybe that the consumer end of the market is at that indecisive phase at the end of a protracted slowdown. Retail sales data showed a 0.5% increase in activity in July. That was much better than expected and may have something to do with the inflation rate, which eased to 4.9% in July from 5.4% the previous month.
Swedish krona (SEK) currency notes

UK returns from bank holiday to minimal change

Most of the UK was closed for a public holiday yesterday. As Britain accounts for 38% of the global foreign exchange market turnover, a day like that can either be as flat as the proverbial pancake or extremely volatile. On this occasion, sterling lost a little ground but traders have been quick to take advantage of that weak sterling level and the pound has bounced back this morning.
Dresden - Germany

GBP dips on worst retail survey in 29 months

The Confederation of British Industry published its monthly retail sector survey yesterday and it didn't make for pleasant reading. At minus 44, the figure was the worst since March 2021 and well below the minus 25 reading in July. The section of the survey that deals with forward expectations was slightly improved from the previous month but still very much in negative territory.