https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Euro-set-for-weekly-fall.jpg 2201 2201 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-11-07 09:16:432023-11-07 09:16:43Euro supported by Sentix survey
The Sentix Economic Index for the eurozone improved marginally to -18.6 in October. The Economic Expectations component of that delivered an increase of 6.8 points. These are improved numbers but still well into negative territory. So the euro did stabilise but not strengthen particularly. German factory orders also improved, but this morning’s German Industrial Production Data was much worse than expected.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Australiandollarbanknotesandcoins-Inner-banner-Halo-Financial-1.jpg 400 600 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-11-06 09:13:082023-11-06 09:13:08Soft US employment data makes USD slip
The US dollar is weaker this morning after a very soft US employment report on Friday. The markets had expected circa 200,000 fresh jobs to have been created in the non-agricultural sectors but the actual number was just 150,000.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Bank-of-England-facade-in-London-in-the-evening-scaled.jpeg 1707 2560 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-11-03 09:47:042023-11-03 09:47:04BOE on hold but hawkishness slips
The 9 member Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England voted six to three in favour of keeping the UK base rate on hold at 5.25% when they met yesterday. At their previous meeting, 4 of the members voted for an interest rate hike, whereas only three did the same in this meeting.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Federal-reserve-system-symbol-on-hundred-dollar-bill-closeup-mac-scaled.jpeg 1696 2560 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-11-01 09:34:432023-11-02 10:06:57GBP USD negotiates central bank announcements
As was widely expected, the US Federal Reserve left their base rate on hold at 5.5% when they met yesterday. The statement that accompanied the decision still talked about holding a tightening bias as far as the US money supply is concerned but there is a growing chorus of voices calling for them to start easing the pressure on consumers sooner rather than later.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/japan-recession.jpg 600 1080 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-10-31 09:43:042023-10-31 09:43:04AUD and NZD weaker on Asian news
In a very busy overnight session, the Bank of Japan left the base interest rate on hold at minus 0.1%. That was a little surprising as many in the markets had started to believe the time was right for the BOJ to get their base rate at least into the positive zone.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/FED_1.jpg 185 340 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-10-30 09:03:292023-10-30 09:03:29USD continues strength ahead of Fed meeting
The GBP/USD rate has wiped out all the gains it made throughout the early part of October and we are back down to $1.2090 this morning. It isn't just the pound the US dollar is gaining against. The EUR/USD rate is also back down to $1.0550.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Global-risk-sentiment-improves-on-broad-based-USD-weakness-scaled.jpg 2560 1707 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-10-27 08:42:072023-10-27 08:42:07USD steadies on strong Q3 GDP
In the first estimate of US economic growth in the third quarter of the year, the data was significantly stronger than expected. The 4.9% quarterly growth rate is nearly half a percent stronger than the markets had forecast and more than double the growth seen in Q2.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/vancouver-harbour-news-banner-halo-financial.jpg 270 380 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-10-26 10:33:032023-10-26 10:33:03BOC ‘no change’ announcement barely ripples CAD value
Nobody in the market was seriously expecting the Bank of Canada to move their base rate when they met yesterday. So the announcement that it would remain at 5.0% shuffled the GBP/CAD rate by half a cent but no more.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/AdobeStock_22316273-scaled.jpeg 1700 2560 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-10-24 09:29:142023-10-24 09:29:14GBP bounces on UK unemployment data
Sterling got a fillip this morning from better-than-forecast UK employment data. The headline unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, an improvement on the market expectation of an unchanged 4.3%. The claimant count dropped by 20,400 in the month of September and job losses in the three months to September were only 82,000, as opposed to the market expectation of more than double that number.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Will-Australian-farmers-undercut-UK-farmers-scaled.jpg 1707 2560 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-10-23 10:11:352023-10-23 10:11:35Slow start but UK PMIs early tomorrow
The fact that both New Zealand and Hong Kong having a national holiday today meant the overnight markets were fairly quiet. In fact, the rest of Monday is likely to be very quiet due to the lack of Tier 1 economic data due for release. Geopolitically speaking, the world is still on tenterhooks as Israel and Hamas mull their next moves.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/AdobeStock_81435978-scaled.jpeg 1707 2560 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-10-19 09:30:312023-10-19 09:30:31Australian employment data undershoots
The total number of Australians in jobs grew by 6,700 in September, significantly weaker than the 65,000 jobs created in the previous month. It was also disappointing data on the participation rate which slipped from 67% last month to 66.7% in September.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/dollar-rate-g3420a9e63_1920-min.jpg 1357 1920 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-10-17 10:18:052023-10-17 10:18:05USD gains on Iran threat
The message from Iran that they were considering a pre-emptive strike on Israel sent shudders through the financial markets and sent rattled investors scurrying to the safety of the US dollar. Evidently, and quite rightly so, the risk of all-out war in the East Mediterranean and perhaps the wider Middle East, trumps anything else going on at the moment.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/manufacturing-industry-employment.jpg 650 1080 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-10-16 10:17:172023-10-16 10:17:17Sterling treading water ahead of employment data
Sterling is a little directionless at the moment. We don't have any tier-one UK data today but we do have a slew of speakers from the Bank of England. So sterling is likely to be a little unpredictable. However, most traders will be hanging fire in anticipation of tomorrow morning's unemployment data.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/eric-prouzet-TZB-1vfImhY-unsplash-1-scaled.jpg 1704 2560 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-10-13 09:12:072023-10-13 09:12:17US data remains stubbornly strong
US inflation came in at at 0.3% in the month of September keeping the annualised rate of inflation up at 3.7%, both figures being stronger than the markets had forecast. It would appear that the service components of the inflation data drove that strength, especially a measure called Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER), which reflects strength in the housing market.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AdobeStock_189176670-scaled.jpeg 1708 2560 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-10-12 10:45:482023-10-12 10:45:48UK economy looks set to avoid recession
Britain's Office for National Statistics published the August monthly economic growth figure this morning. Monthly growth of 0.2% doesn't sound scintillating but it was better than the 0.6% contraction we saw in July.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Businessman-holding-pen-and-pointing-paper-chart-summary-analyzing-annual-business-scaled.jpeg 1631 2560 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-10-10 09:49:272023-10-10 09:49:27Sterling steady as BRC data is mildly disappointing
Monday was a very quiet one from a data perspective. Hence, the markets bided their time watching the dreadful events in the Israel – Palestine conflict. The pound did pick up some strength on most fronts overnight after the British Retail Consortium published a 2.8% rise in retail sales activity in September compared to the same month in 2022.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/AdobeStock_136089979-1-scaled.jpeg 1707 2560 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-10-09 08:50:072023-10-09 08:50:07Hamas attacks cause USD strength
Friday’s US employment data was sufficiently confusing to weaken the US dollar. The markets had expected a small reduction in America's unemployment rate but that remains static at 3.8% despite a sizeable 336,000 jump in the number of people on the non-farm payrolls.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/GBPUSD-notes-on-white-background-scaled.jpeg 1707 2560 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-10-06 09:56:482023-10-06 09:56:48USD slips ahead of employment data
Both the GBP/USD and EUR/USD rates are a tad higher this morning ahead of the US employment data. Yesterday's weekly jobless claims numbers showed a minor downturn in the number of unemployment claims. The recent job openings report showed a rise in the number of opportunities for unemployed Americans.