Euro set for weekly fall

Euro supported by Sentix survey

The Sentix Economic Index for the eurozone improved marginally to -18.6 in October. The Economic Expectations component of that delivered an increase of 6.8 points. These are improved numbers but still well into negative territory. So the euro did stabilise but not strengthen particularly. German factory orders also improved, but this morning’s German Industrial Production Data was much worse than expected.

Soft US employment data makes USD slip

The US dollar is weaker this morning after a very soft US employment report on Friday. The markets had expected circa 200,000 fresh jobs to have been created in the non-agricultural sectors but the actual number was just 150,000.
Bank of England facade in London in the evening. BoE UK interest rate cut concept

BOE on hold but hawkishness slips

The 9 member Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England voted six to three in favour of keeping the UK base rate on hold at 5.25% when they met yesterday. At their previous meeting, 4 of the members voted for an interest rate hike, whereas only three did the same in this meeting.
Federal reserve system symbol on hundred dollar bill closeup. US central bank

GBP USD negotiates central bank announcements

As was widely expected, the US Federal Reserve left their base rate on hold at 5.5% when they met yesterday. The statement that accompanied the decision still talked about holding a tightening bias as far as the US money supply is concerned but there is a growing chorus of voices calling for them to start easing the pressure on consumers sooner rather than later.
japan recession

AUD and NZD weaker on Asian news

In a very busy overnight session, the Bank of Japan left the base interest rate on hold at minus 0.1%. That was a little surprising as many in the markets had started to believe the time was right for the BOJ to get their base rate at least into the positive zone.

USD continues strength ahead of Fed meeting

The GBP/USD rate has wiped out all the gains it made throughout the early part of October and we are back down to $1.2090 this morning. It isn't just the pound the US dollar is gaining against. The EUR/USD rate is also back down to $1.0550.
spread out US dollar bills

USD steadies on strong Q3 GDP

In the first estimate of US economic growth in the third quarter of the year, the data was significantly stronger than expected. The 4.9% quarterly growth rate is nearly half a percent stronger than the markets had forecast and more than double the growth seen in Q2.

BOC ‘no change’ announcement barely ripples CAD value

Nobody in the market was seriously expecting the Bank of Canada to move their base rate when they met yesterday. So the announcement that it would remain at 5.0% shuffled the GBP/CAD rate by half a cent but no more.
statue in front of the Bank of England

GBP bounces on UK unemployment data

Sterling got a fillip this morning from better-than-forecast UK employment data. The headline unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, an improvement on the market expectation of an unchanged 4.3%. The claimant count dropped by 20,400 in the month of September and job losses in the three months to September were only 82,000, as opposed to the market expectation of more than double that number.
tractor on a farm land

Slow start but UK PMIs early tomorrow

The fact that both New Zealand and Hong Kong having a national holiday today meant the overnight markets were fairly quiet. In fact, the rest of Monday is likely to be very quiet due to the lack of Tier 1 economic data due for release. Geopolitically speaking, the world is still on tenterhooks as Israel and Hamas mull their next moves.
panoramic view of Guangzhou, China

Australian employment data undershoots

The total number of Australians in jobs grew by 6,700 in September, significantly weaker than the 65,000 jobs created in the previous month. It was also disappointing data on the participation rate which slipped from 67% last month to 66.7% in September.
dollar exchange rate experiences an increase signal

USD gains on Iran threat

The message from Iran that they were considering a pre-emptive strike on Israel sent shudders through the financial markets and sent rattled investors scurrying to the safety of the US dollar. Evidently, and quite rightly so, the risk of all-out war in the East Mediterranean and perhaps the wider Middle East, trumps anything else going on at the moment.
image of two people employed in the manufacturing industry

Sterling treading water ahead of employment data

Sterling is a little directionless at the moment. We don't have any tier-one UK data today but we do have a slew of speakers from the Bank of England. So sterling is likely to be a little unpredictable. However, most traders will be hanging fire in anticipation of tomorrow morning's unemployment data.
USA Dollars and Chinese Yuan

US data remains stubbornly strong

US inflation came in at at 0.3% in the month of September keeping the annualised rate of inflation up at 3.7%, both figures being stronger than the markets had forecast. It would appear that the service components of the inflation data drove that strength, especially a measure called Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER), which reflects strength in the housing market.
Hands holding british pound coin and small money pouch

UK economy looks set to avoid recession

Britain's Office for National Statistics published the August monthly economic growth figure this morning. Monthly growth of 0.2% doesn't sound scintillating but it was better than the 0.6% contraction we saw in July.
Businessman holding pen and pointing paper chart summary analyzing annual business report with using laptop working from home.

Sterling steady as BRC data is mildly disappointing

Monday was a very quiet one from a data perspective. Hence, the markets bided their time watching the dreadful events in the Israel – Palestine conflict. The pound did pick up some strength on most fronts overnight after the British Retail Consortium published a 2.8% rise in retail sales activity in September compared to the same month in 2022.
close view of american dollar cash and usa flag

Hamas attacks cause USD strength

Friday’s US employment data was sufficiently confusing to weaken the US dollar. The markets had expected a small reduction in America's unemployment rate but that remains static at 3.8% despite a sizeable 336,000 jump in the number of people on the non-farm payrolls.
GBPUSD cash banknotes on white background

USD slips ahead of employment data

Both the GBP/USD and EUR/USD rates are a tad higher this morning ahead of the US employment data. Yesterday's weekly jobless claims numbers showed a minor downturn in the number of unemployment claims. The recent job openings report showed a rise in the number of opportunities for unemployed Americans.