https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Immigrating-to-Canada-life-in-Canada-scaled.jpg 1742 2560 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-10-05 10:04:522023-10-05 10:04:52CAD gives up gains ahead of employment data
The GBP/CAD rate fell for the whole of September but we have seen a small-scale recovery in October. That is partly due to a general recovery of the pound and partly due to general concerns over the Canadian economy and the plans of the Bank of Canada over their monetary policy.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/AdobeStock_358386653-scaled.jpeg 1707 2560 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-10-04 09:04:492023-10-04 09:04:49RBNZ on hold and soften tone
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained their base rate at 5.5% when they met this morning but there was a softening of the tone in the statement they released. They spoke more about the risk too economic growth but continued to maintain that interest rates may have to remain elevated for longer.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/NZD-Dollars.jpg 210 380 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-10-03 09:01:342023-10-03 09:01:34AUD loses ground after RBA and weak data
Unsurprisingly, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept their base rate on hold at 4.1% for the 4th meeting in a row when they met in the early hours of this morning. That was widely forecast by the markets and therefore, largely ignored by traders.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/London-records-weakest-house-price-growth-scaled-e1625069917345.jpg 1001 1500 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-10-02 09:02:012023-10-02 09:02:01UK house prices down 5.3% on year
According to Nationwide, UK house prices fell by 5.3% in the year to September; the largest drop since 2009. Surely no one can be surprised that 14 interest rate hikes after more than a decade of virtually 0% interest rates would have a negative impact on the housing market.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/AdobeStock_81432616-scaled.jpeg 1391 2560 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-09-29 08:57:572023-09-29 08:57:57UK growth outperforms Germany and France
Economic forecasters generally get it wrong. Occasionally they get it right and then they crow on about that for weeks, but when it comes to the UK's performance post-COVID the naysayers and doom-mongers have been getting it wrong for three years.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/AdobeStock_100558840-scaled.jpeg 1280 2560 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-09-28 09:12:112023-09-28 09:12:11US durable goods data supports USD
Yesterday's US data showed a rise of 0.4% in core durable goods orders in the month of August, measure including all goods rose by 0.2% against a market forecast of a contraction of 0.5%. This good news was enough to crush the little rally that we saw in the GBP/USD exchange rate and this pair is down to $ 1.2120 this morning.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/AdobeStock_254869734-scaled.jpeg 1709 2560 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-09-27 08:49:172023-09-27 08:49:17Australian inflation up as per forecasts
Australia's consumer price index rose as expected to 5.2 percent in the 12 months to August, up from the July figure of 4.9%. This had been widely forecast by the markets. The rise appears to have been driven by higher fuel prices and an increase in property prices.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Oil-production-in-USA-Halo-Financial.jpg 362 500 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-09-25 09:11:232023-09-25 09:11:23Commodity currencies gain strength
Poor PMI figures released by Europe on Friday for the eurozone and the UK give credibility to the idea that further monetary tightening by the ECB and BoE may not be in the cards. The Swiss franc also felt the pressure. Commodity currencies, led by the New Zealand dollar, flexed their muscles.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/New-Zealand-and-Australia-set-for-trade-talks-Halo-Financial.jpg 400 600 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-09-22 11:59:182023-09-22 11:59:18BoE pause interest rate hikes
The big news of yesterday was that the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, a day after UK inflation surprisingly fell by more than expected. The Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) voted 5-4, in favour of pausing, to leave the cost of borrowing unchanged.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/UK-to-become-a-leader-in-green-energy-scaled.jpg 1707 2560 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-09-21 10:07:282023-09-21 10:07:53Pound suffers as inflation declines
The pound suffered another day of significant losses yesterday on the back of a Core Inflation figure that continued to show inflation is in decline in the UK. The forecast figure was expected to show a modest rise to 7.0% due to factors such as bad weather and rising fuel costs...
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Bank-of-England-facade-in-London-in-the-evening-scaled.jpeg 1707 2560 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-09-20 09:54:292023-09-20 09:55:08Surprising decline in UK inflation
This morning’s UK CPI data for August revealed a surprising further decline in annual inflation, from 6.8% in July to 6.7%. Because of the recent increase in gas prices, economists had anticipated a rise in inflation, but other variables more than countered that.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/London-records-weakest-house-price-growth-scaled-e1625069917345.jpg 1001 1500 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-09-14 09:13:492023-09-14 09:13:49GBP recovery knocked by RICS survey
As we suspected, sterling did mount a recovery of sorts yesterday but it has taken a knock again overnight after the release of the worst house price balance survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors since 2009. This index has been trending lower since May 2022 and fell into negative territory in November last year
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/London-when-it-rains-Halo-Financial-Inner-banner-June-2017.jpg 400 600 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-09-13 08:42:482023-09-13 08:42:48UK GDP hit by strikes and rain
UK economic data is a bit of a roller coaster at the moment. Having seen upward revisions to the economic growth data for the end of 2021 and the positive impact that had on Sterling, this morning bought disappointing data for July 2023. Strikes by public sector workers in the health service and in schools dragged economic output down in July and the persistent rain did nothing to help the construction and service sectors.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/AdobeStock_365452408.jpeg 4425 7853 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-09-12 09:25:102023-09-12 09:25:10AUD holds strength despite disparate Aussie data
There was a mismatch of data from Australia overnight. The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to minus 1.5%, following on from a minus 0.4% reading in August. However, the NAB business survey showed a reading of 13, up from the 11 rating in the previous month and the strongest result since May.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Euros-1.jpg 852 1280 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-09-11 09:02:592023-09-11 09:02:59Euro steady ahead of ECB rate decision
The euro strengthened for the latter part of last week but has levelled off this morning amidst a lack of Eurozone data. Traders are generally preparing for the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, which they will deliver on Thursday.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/effects-prince-charles-gbp-usd-market.jpg 650 1080 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-09-08 08:59:402023-09-08 08:59:40USD set for longest winning streak since 2014
Improving US economic data has poured cold water on those who think the rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve are due to end. That expectation of a higher US rate has manifested itself into the US dollar strength. In fact, this recent period of strengthening for the US dollar may well be the longest winning streak we have seen since 2014.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/AdobeStock_178201475-scaled.jpeg 1707 2560 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-09-07 09:45:032023-09-07 09:45:03Chinese concerns and building approvals drop shrugged off by AUD
After yesterday's stronger-than-expected Australian GDP growth it was a surprise to see a slump of 8.1% in building approvals reducing Australia's trade balance to just over 8 billion in July. However, when you look beyond Australia’s borders, data from elsewhere paints the picture for the whole Asia/Pacific region.
https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/AdobeStock_27145002-scaled.jpeg 1700 2560 Jason Mcmahon https://www.halofinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HaloFinancialv2.png Jason Mcmahon2023-09-06 08:56:082023-09-06 08:56:08Aussie growth beats quarterly estimates
The Australian dollar regained some strength in early trade today after the release of Australian economic growth data, which showed 0.4% growth in the three months to June and 2.1% annual growth. Both results beat the market forecasts but it means the annual growth rate slipped from 2.4% in the first quarter.