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Bank of Canada rate decision to be announced today

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  Bank of Canada rate decision in focus New NAFTA a priority for Canada   Today’s currency news is focused on Canada, mainly concerning the Bank of Canada rate decision and the new NAFTA agreement that Prime Minister…

Sterling stable approaching election, beware Bank of England

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Sterling was stable yesterday in spite of attempts to ambush the Prime Minister with an unchallenged photo of a child on a hospital floor. The Tory lead in the election polls is still there and the markets are still supporting Sterling due to that. We get economic growth data or Q3 this morning. 1.2% annualised growth is the most likely outcome but any surprises could impact the Pound and we are also going to see, what is forecast to be, an improvement in UK industrial production. However, the Bank of England's financial stability report could unsettle things, so be careful out there!

Sterling continues to strengthen as election approaches

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If this were a movie, there would be a low meandering bass note drone in the background overlaid with a quickening heart beat because we have only 4 days to go before we in the UK get to exercise (or is that exorcise) our franchise. All sides seem to be in agreement that the Conservatives will get a majority but the size of that lead varies a lot dependent on the newspaper you read. Either way, the Pound is gently strengthening in anticipation of a little bit of certainty after 42 months of abject uncertainty

Sterling set to strengthen if Tory lead is maintained

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We are awaiting the UK Halifax House Price Index, which may show a small increase in the average home valuation. Sterling is doing well and this could only help the Pound. Next week brings Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for Q3 and... dum dum duuuum; an election! Pollsters are all forecasting a Conservative majority, although they don't agree on the margin. What is pretty clear is that, if the polls have got their numbers right, the Pound ought to start strengthening by Thursday afternoon as the first of the exit polls start to be seen.

The Pound rises unexpectedly

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I have been unwell for a couple of days and out of the office. Interesting to see that Sterling took it as a cue to push higher right across the board. So we start the day with the Pound (at the interbank level) pushing above USD1.31, EUR 1.1850, AUD 1.92, NZD 2.01, CAD1.73 and ZAR19.14. I could go on but you get the picture. There is no obvious reason for Sterling’s sudden jump; recent UK data has been hampered by the ongoing Brexit inertia, the polls show a narrowing of the Tory lead in the election campaign and voting day is just a week away but strengthened it has. (That was a bit Yoda wasn’t it). To be fair, yesterday’s UK service sector release showed the PMI at 49.3; better than forecast but down on last month and below the breakeven line of 50.0.

Trade and political tensions driving currency markets

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The data diary for the US is light this week, in the run up to the Thanksgiving holiday, but some key announcements include Tuesday’s home construction figures and the Jobless Claims report due on Thursday. Housing starts showed a drop for September, which was hoped to be a temporary blip, so those keeping a close eye on the US markets will have been relieved to see a significant rebound this time around, with building permits up to the highest level since 2007.

Sterling and NZD start week surprise strongest currencies

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The week started slowly on the data and economic front, with Veterans Day in the USA and a number of public holidays across the globe to remember those we lost in past conflicts.  This didn’t stop currency or stock markets  from moving, however, or indeed stop politics from influencing these market movements.

Mixed week for economic announcements – what does it mean?

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The Bank of England publishes its latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Minutes on Thursday, along with a report on monetary policy, in place of the usual quarterly inflation report. Markets do not expect much change in the UK’s inflation data, but expectations are growing of a decrease in interest rates. Whether this will be at Thursday’s meeting or the next is the question. Either report from the UK’s central bank could help or hinder the Pound, however, so markets will be watching for a range of signals and economic indicators on Thursday.

What a week! And it’s only Wednesday…

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Trick or treat? There should be plenty of both this week and it should be a busy one for currency markets, with no fewer than three important central bank meetings and a raft of important economic data worldwide, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment figures and consumer confidence indices. On the other side, Friday brings a new month and with it a raft of Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI), always watched for economic indicators and meaningful nuggets for the markets.