All usual economic indicators are being treated as irrelevant or not as important as the immediate update from governments. The daily 5 pm Coronavirus press briefings from Boris Johnson will be what the markets are watching and the main focus on today’s economic calendar. The future of the Pound, UK’s policy and economic direction currently depend on what is being announced on the daily speech and on how Coronavirus impacts the UK.
Economic calendar and currencies: what will currencies watch out for this week?
It’s a quiet start to the week on the economic calendar for the Euro. The Eurozone’s flash consumer confidence figures for March are due out late in the day.
With the EU going into shutdown mode in March and the total number of deaths in Italy surpassing China, it’s not going to be good.
Any hopes of a consumer consumption-driven economic rebound have gone as non-essential businesses close in a bid to contain the virus.
Euro could see an upside on latest Coronavirus news
For the Euro, there may be some upside, however, as the number of cases in the U.S surpasses the likes of Spain, Germany, and France.
The reality is, however, that the Dollar will likely continue to hold onto its safe-haven status. At least for now. Things could change should Asia and Europe manage to contain the virus sooner. At the time of writing, the Euro was up by 0.01% at $1.0689.
It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar for the Pound too, with no material economic data due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.
The Pound depending on the government’s action to fight Coronavirus
With the government enforcing greater containment measures, the Pound may find some much-needed support. While the number of cases has risen, they are still well below its neighbours. The government is optimistically expecting a short period of economic woe.
With non-essential businesses closing down to contain Coronavirus, we would expect more fiscal measures to be rolled out. This should provide further support to the Pound in the week.
It’s also a quiet day ahead on the U.S economic calendar, with no material stats to provide direction. Updates on the Coronavirus and the government measures to contain the spread and support the US economy will remain the key driver.
Safe-haven demand strengthened as US Coronavirus cases jump
Coronavirus numbers alone from the weekend support increased demand for safe havens at the start of the week. The jump in U.S cases, however, will test the Dollar.
The markets will certainly need to get a sense of how widely the virus can spread before being able to assess the economic fallout.
For now, the market’s comfort blanket is that the U.S government and Federal Reserve are willing to do anything. That is about the only good news, however, as the spread of the virus continues to gather pace. A Bipartisan vote is needed swiftly now to get funds to those that need it.
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.36% to 102.447 at the time of writing.
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar for the Canadian Dollar, with January wholesale sales figures due out later today.
We would expect the Canadian Dollar to be more exposed to any weak numbers. The markets will likely fret if the bar is already at a low level ahead of any impact from the Coronavirus…
Crude oil prices and market sentiment towards demand the economic outlook will likely remain the Canadian Dollar’s nemesis on the day.
The Canadian Dollar was down by 0.67% at C$1.4462 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing, with crude oil prices back on the slide in the early hours.
RBNZ launching quantitative easing programme
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced quantitative easing (QE) on Monday, following an aggressive emergency rate cut, by -75 bps, to 0.25% last week. The surprising move aims at soothing the credit conditions which have tightened significantly over the past weeks. The central bank has planned to buy NZ$ 30B worth of New Zealand Government bonds over the next 12 months across the yield curve. The QE program would make the central bank own about one-third of the government bonds on issue in 12 months’ time, similar size to other central banks’ QE programs
There is a lot of volatility on this week’s economic calendar and the Pound is expected to remain under pressure. This could affect your currency trading. Contact our currency experts or fill in the form below to ensure you get the best value for your money.