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August

US Dollar weakened by Trump’s political problems

Published: Wednesday 22 August 2018

  • Canadian Retail Sales expected lower
  • Trump troubles damage Dollar
​​By David Johnson
 
Tumbleweed; that’s the state of the data diaries for today. Open space… emptiness and tumbleweed. So thank goodness for Donald Trump; the gift that keeps on giving. Without his woes, we might have a very quiet morning indeed.  Did that sound callous? Sorry about that.
 
Trump troubles damage Dollar
 
The troubled US president’s double whammy yesterday came in the form of two court appearances. One included an admission by his former lawyer that Donald Trump directed him to break campaign financing laws; paying off two women to avoid trouble during his election campaign. A separate court also found Trump’s campaign chairman guilty of eight counts of tax and bank fraud. I am sure I have read somewhere that a man is known by the company he keeps. Nuff said.
 
That news has damaged the US Dollar, which allowed the Pound to push it up to nigh on $1.29 and the Euro pushed the USD up comfortably above $1.15. The Pound’s big challenge will be the psychological barrier of $1.30 and then the long term trendline resistance at 1.3160 or thereabouts. The lack of UK data today might mean that doesn’t happen just yet. We will get the minutes from the last Federal Reserve rate setting meeting today, but there is unlikely to be anything new in that.
 
Canadian Dollar under pressure?
 
The Canadian Dollar may come under pressure later. It is already on the back foot due to Canada’s reliance on the US market as a customer for Canadian exports, but the forecasts for this afternoon’s retail sales data are pretty poor and a slowdown from last month’s 2.0% monthly rise to something like 0.1% is expected. 
 
A catalogue of errors
 
And Ryanair comes in for some stick. Some of it is fully justified and some not so much, but the latest is that a number of compensation cheques for passengers who had already had a rough ride with the airline have bounced, causing bank charges and anger. Someone at the airline had forgotten to get the cheques signed before sending them out. They have apologised but the story is another one to add to the Ryanair joke fuel.
 
Have a great day, even if it is a quiet one on the data front.
In the headmistress’s office
 
A mum is called to the school. In the headmistress’s office, they explain to her that her son, Nick, has been throwing stones at some other boys.
“Mum, it’s not fair. They started throwing stones at me first, so I threw some back at them and I hit one of them.”
“So,” says his mum, “When the boys were throwing stones at you, why did you throw stones back at them? Why didn’t you call me instead?”
“Come on Mum, we both know you can’t throw.”

Today's Major Economic Releases

Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
CAD 13:30 Canada: Retail Sales 2.0% -0.1%
CAD 13:30 Canada: Core Retail Sales 1.4% -0.1%
USD 15:00 US: Existing Home Sales 5.38m 5.40m
USD 15:30 US: Crude Oil Inventories 6.8m -1.6m
USD 19:00 Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes    

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