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Euro recovers on German factory orders

Published: Friday 06 July 2018

  • USD braced for weaker employment data
  • Canadian trade and employment data awaited
​​By David Johnson
The Euro had a better day yesterday; strengthening against the USD, the Pound and others. That was helped by a strong rebound (2.6% rise) in German factory orders.
The Euro’s gains against the Pound were helped this morning by a slowdown in house prices, as reported by Halifax, the Bank of Scotland. There is a notable lack of UK data today, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Sterling slide a little through the day.
The Euro’s gains against the USD were also helped by a softer sentiment in the US Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. They did raise the base rate by 25 basis points in their June meeting but there are fears within the Federal Reserve (Fed) over the impact on US President Trump’s aggressive trade policies. This afternoon is a busy one for US data though. Import and export data will add to the employment report to keep US traders on their toes. The forecasts are slightly softer than previous months and that could allow the USD to weaken a little before the weekend, so bear that in mind.
This afternoon also brings the Canadian trade balance and employment data but the forecasts are more mixed for this data than the US data. Unemployment is expected to have risen but the trade deficit has probably suffered in the eye of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) debacle.
And then it is the weekend and a certain football match will occupy the thoughts of many. As will the Silverstone Grand Prix…oh and Wimbledon and probably a heap of other sporting events. As long as there is a Pimms tent, I’m up for any of them…..except the football. All that rolling around on the floor trying to look hurt just bugs the heck out of me.
Bob meets Tom in a bar. Tom has a split lip and a black eye and he looks dreadful.
“What the hell happened to you?” asks Bob.
“Well it’s a bit of a misunderstanding really.” Said Tom. “It was my wife’s birthday yesterday and I didn’t know what to buy her. So, last weekend I asked her what she wanted and she said, ‘I want something shiny and sleek that will go from 0 to 150 in three seconds.’”
“So you bought her a sports car I guess,” says Bob.
“Nope,” says Tom, “I bought her some bathroom scales.”

Today's Major Economic Releases

Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
CAD 13:30 Canada: Employment Change -7.5k 22.3k
CAD 13:30 Canada: Trade Balance -1.9b -2.2b
CAD 13:30 Canada: Unemployment Rate 5.8% 5.8%
USD 13:30 US: Average Hourly Earnings 0.3% 0.3%
USD 13:30 US: Non-Farm Employment Change 223k 195k
USD 13:30 US: Unemployment Change 3.8% 3.8%
USD 13:30 US: Trade Balance -46.2b -43.6b

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