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June

A quiet week for economic data – speeches drive sentiment

Published: Wednesday 27 June 2018

  • Do you want the good news or the bad news, my Kiwi friends?
  • Any other business...
​​By Alastair Sweetman

The week has been particularly quiet in terms of economic data – Sterling lost a bit of ground yesterday as incoming Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member, Jonathan Haskel, said that he felt that there could be more slack in the economy than is currently thought. As he is replacing arch dove McCafferty this makes it less likely that interest rates will rise quite as aggressively as is currently priced in. A slow, steady approach may prevail – not great news for Sterling. The Pound tested lows below 1.3200 on the news, and will remain under pressure in light of the data vacuum.
 
Do you want the good news or the bad news, my Kiwi friends?
 
Overnight we had both good news and bad news from New Zealand. First, the bad news. The New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence figures dropped to -39 from a previous - 27.2. ANZ is expecting the economy to slow slightly over the coming months and the Kiwi Dollar sold off accordingly - GBPNZD is currently trading at the highest level since the end of May.
 
The good news was that the New Zealand trade surplus widened in May, hitting a new high for total exports in May. Tonight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has the interest rate meeting; no change is expected to the Official Cash Rate, but the RBNZ accompanying statement will trigger some volatility for the New Zealand Dollar and its trading partners. You have been warned…
 
Any other business...
 
Other than that, the markets shrugged off more Trade War shenanigans; the US not happy with the EU's retaliatory measures at this time.  Today, we'll be hearing from Mark Carney during the Bank of England (BoE) Financial Stability Report, so expect some volatility for the Pound.
 
This afternoon brings US Durable Goods Orders, then tonight, Canadian central bank head, Stephen Poloz, is speaking, then we await the interest rate decision from the RBNZ.
SWE vs DEN

When Sweden plays Denmark in sport, the scoreboard will say SWE-DEN. The unused letters say DEN-MARK.

Today's Major Economic Releases

Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
EUR 09:00 EU: M3 Money Supply 3.9% 3.8%
GBP 09:30 Bank of England Financial Stability Report    
USD 13:30 US: Durable Goods Orders -1.6% 0.9%
USD 13:30 US: Core Durable Goods Orders 0.9% 0.5%
USD 13:30 US: Goods Trade Balance -67.3b -68.9b
USD 15:00 US: Pending Home Sales -1.3% 0.4%
NZD 22:00 Reserve Bank of New Zealand Official Cash Rate 1.75% 1.75%
NZD 22:00 Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Statement    

For more information, infographics and the latest currency insights, visit www.halofinancial.com/news