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November

Sterling remains weakened against all but Euro

Published: Tuesday 13 November 2018

  • Big morning for UK data
  • US Federal Reserve dominates the afternoon
​​By David Johnson

 
Quiet markets marked the start of the week due to the US Veteran’s Day break and a distinct lack of hard data. Things change this morning; we get UK employment and average wages data for the UK and the forecasts are all positive. Sterling, which has slipped against all but the Euro, will very likely regain some of those losses and may even test €1.15 against the Euro if the actual data exceeds the forecasts.
 
That potential gain against the Euro could also be fuelled by, what are expected to be very poor results from the German ZEW surveys on business sentiment indices regarding current confidence and future trade sentiment. All the forecasts are very poor indeed. It’ll be very interesting to see how that plays out.
 
This afternoon is dominated by the US Federal Reserve. Speeches from no less than four Federal Chairs will take place, alongside the release of the Federal Budget Balance for October which is expected to be quite awful. To be fair, this data is notoriously volatile, so maybe that is less impactful. The US Dollar is near a 16 month high overall and that sees the GBPUSD rate down in the $1.28 area while the EURUSD rate is in the $1.1250 zone.
 
We will get Japanese economic growth data overnight tonight and this is forecast to be quite poor. The Yen is vulnerable right now; what with China’s poor data and the strong USD. The markets are expecting poor GDP data and that would put further pressure on the Yen.
 
And, in this age of the planet-sized TV, where vast flat screen screens dominate lounges around the country, it would seem a little odd to have an old style cathode tube Telly. But the TV licensing authority says that 7,000 viewers in the UK are still watching programmes on black and white televisions. I am old enough to remember when our posh friends started to get colour tellies and it was a revelation. Why you would stay with a B&W one, I cannot fathom.

TV

I watch the Discovery Channel, and you know what I’ve discovered? I need a girlfriend.
Dave Attell

 
Future generations will look back on TV as the lead in the water pipes that slowly drove the Romans mad.
Kurt Vonnegut
 
Remote controls are quite handy. They let you see that there’s nothing worth watching on TV a lot faster.
Melanie White
 

Today's Major Economic Releases

Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
GBP 09:30 UK: Average Earnings Index 2.7% 3.0%
GBP 09:30 UK: Unemployment Rate 4.0% 4.0%
GBP 09:30 UK: Claimant Count Change 18.5k 4.3k
EUR 10:00 EU: German ZEW Economic Sentiment -24.7 -24.2
USD 19:00 US: Federal Reserve Budget Balance 199.1b -116.6b

For more information, infographics and the latest currency insights, visit www.halofinancial.com/news