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November

Theresa May faces more challenges

Published: Monday 19 November 2018

  • Confederation of British Industry back existing Brexit plan
  • Terse words between China and the US
​​By David Johnson
 
The ‘B’ word has dominated the weekend political news in the UK. There is much debate over whether the rebel alliance have enough votes to strike back against the empire (well the Prime Minister at least) and whether the EU escape plan has any chance of getting through parliament. It seems there is a lack of those brave enough to oust the Prime Minister and there are a few die-hard supporters who, whether they like the Brexit plan in its entirety or not, are keen to keep Theresa May in office. The Prime Minister meets with the Confederation of British Industry today and they are supporting her plan.
 
I have no doubt there will be more twists and turns in the politicking before the week is out. Sterling is meeting this uncertainty with a modicum of stability after falling last week. Whether that support will hold is anybody’s guess but it may rest on the rumours that an extended transition period may be invoked for Brexit and that could keep the UK in a status quo position for another 3 or 4 years. That removal of uncertainty would most likely strengthen the Pound and maybe the Euro as well but it will unsettle many sectors of the professional lobbyists.

Over the Channel, the Finance Ministers of the Eurogroup are meeting to discuss Brexit and other matters. I suspect the Italian budget will be widely discussed behind closed doors. The lack of any other meaningful data today could make this more significant than it might have been.
 
There is also very little news from the US today other than perhaps more news of the ongoing standoff between the US and China after some very terse words at the weekend. 
 
That’s about all for today. The week ahead promises more excitement than a box of badgers in a bubble-wrap factory. It culminates with that other irritating US import, Black Friday. Other than Trick-or-Treat I mean oh and asking for a coffee by saying ‘Can I get’…. It seems Black Friday has now been extended to be a black fortnight. Before that though, we will see minutes from the last Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, a UK inflation report (which must surely be pure speculation right now), a slew of US data, a day and a half of US Thanksgiving Day holiday, lots of nervous Turkeys and Uncle Tom Cobley and all. It will, I can fairly confidently report, be a volatile week for the Pound and Euro. Enjoy.

Defence

My wife crashed her car yesterday. When the police arrived, she told the officer that the man she ran into was on his mobile phone at the time and had a can of beer in his hand. The police officer thanked her for the information but explained that a man is entitled to do anything he likes in his own back garden.

Today's Major Economic Releases

Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
EUR All Day EU: Eurogroup Meetings    
USD 15:00 US: Housing Market Index 68 67

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