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November

EU agrees Brexit deal - the challenge now is Westminster

Published: Monday 26 November 2018

  • Sterling ignores EU decision
  • Central Bankers dominate the day
  • New Zealand trade data tonight
​​By David Johnson
 
It was a good weekend for the home nations in sport. In the Autumn International Rugby, England, Ireland, Wales and Scotland all won against visitors. In Formula One, Lewis Hamilton capped off the season with an impressive win, and the British Prime Minister got her plan approved by the remaining 27 EU nations, who agreed to the terms of the negotiated exit deal for the UK. We can only guess that Sterling did not strengthen on the news because the Prime Minister has a much bigger challenge in getting the plan approved by the British Parliament. The Palace of Westminster is full of people who know what they don’t want, but can’t conceive what they do. So the next few weeks will be a sales campaign to garner as much support as possible for the deal.
 
Sterling could slip again today
 
That commences today, but we may not hear about the covert meetings for a few days. What we will see today is a measure of mortgage approvals in the UK, which we expect to be a tad better than last month. Later in the day, we will also get a speech from Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England. His utterances tend to weaken the Pound, so beware if you need to purchase other currencies with Sterling.
 
How will the Euro fare?
 
We will hear from Mr Carney’s counterparts in the European Central Bank (ECB) much earlier, though, Messers Coeure, Nowotny and Draghi will all be at lecterns during the morning session, so hold on to your hats as they explain how the Brexit deal will affect the Eurozone… or not, as the case may be.
 
Watch out for New Zealand Dollar
 
And then there is some calm-ish before the New Zealand trade balance data this evening (UK time). The deficit is expected to shrink a little, which would be positive for the New Zealand Dollar. So, if you need to buy NZD, you could place a market order to grab some on any bounce in the rate, and protect against any losses; or cut the risk completely by buying on a Spot or Forward trade. Call in if you would like to explore those currency tools in more detail.
 
Should have gone to Specsavers? (Other opticians are available…)
 
And, under the banner of, “it’s in the Telegraph, so it must be true”, People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA), the animal welfare group, has written to the Parish Council in the Dorset-shire village of Wool to request they change the name of the village to ‘Vegan Wool’.  The outcry and muttering of ‘PC gone mad’ have happened, as you might expect, but PETA says it is a fun way of promoting cruelty free fabrics. There are a couple of issues here. The word Wool in this context, is derived from the ancient word for ‘Well’. And, as someone who knows a number of sheep farmers, I am struggling to see the cruelty aspect of shearing sheep once a year. In fact, the sheep are probably more pampered than the shearers.
Thought for the day
 
No matter what happens in your life, you will never be as happy or contented as the actors in tooth brush commercials appear to be.

Today's Major Economic Releases

Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
GBP 09:30 UK: High Street Lending 38.5k 38.9k
EUR 14:00 European Central Bank President Draghi Speaks    
GBP 18:30 Bank of England Governor Carney Speaks    
NZD 21:45 New Zealand: Trade Balance -1,560 -850m

For more information, infographics and the latest currency insights, visit www.halofinancial.com/news