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Sterling struggling with Brexit and Budget

Published: Wednesday 31 October 2018

  • Chinese data disappoints
  • Canadian Dollar volatility likely
​​By David Johnson

Happy All Hallows Eve. Read this quick so you can lock the garden gate and turn off the lights to avoid those pesky trick-or-treaters. I still can’t understand why small children get away with demanding sweets through threats. In adults, that’s called extortion, I think.
Chinese data catches currencies by surprise

There was caution overnight in Australasia and in the Far East as Chinese Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) fell more than expected in October.  Some form of decline in confidence was inevitable with the US versus China trade tensions, but the fall took traders by surprise and the countries that supply China saw a degree of weakness in their currencies.
Sterling slips as Britain digests Brexit and Budget

That didn’t materialise in the GBP cross rates. Sterling is slipping as concerns over all things ‘Brexit’ and all things ‘Budget’ impact the Pound.  The Sterling – Australian Dollar rate dropped in spite of poorer than expected inflation data from Oz, but the GBPNZD rate rebounded by a cent after the ANZ Business Confidence Index only improved marginally but remained in very negative territory at minus 37.1. There is a void in the UK data diary today, so Sterling will only have Brexit and Budget information to react to. Hey ho.
As for the Euro, well, we have had a smattering of EU data already. The most interesting is the poorer than expected German retail sales data. Growth of just 0.1% compared badly to the forecast of 0.35% and the Euro twitched a little on that news. The Sterling – Euro rate is nailed on to 1.12 right now. Eurozone inflation data hit 2.2% in October after a surge in energy prices. Energy prices rose 10.6% over the past year and is the leading figure rise. 
USD just keeps getting stronger...

US data this afternoon includes the Employment Cost Index and the Chicago PMI, both of which are expected to be reasonably positive. It isn’t as if the USD needed more impetus to strengthen, but this should help it.
A good day for Canadian Dollar buyers and sellers

From Canada, we will get economic growth data and the forecasts are quite disparate for this data. Hence, there is plenty of scope for volatility. This would be a good day to pace automated orders whether you are a CAD buyer or seller.
Dude, where’s my car? 

And the owner of Hari Krishna Exporters, an Indian Diamond merchant, gifted cars to 600 of his employees ahead of Diwali. That’s a fabulous thing for Savji Dholakia to do after a good year of trading, but there is a problem. The cars are all identical in colour and model. How on earth is anyone going to find theirs in the company car park? 
Halloween jokes 

Why are Skeletons afraid of everything?
They're gutless

What do Titanic and The Sixth Sense have in common?
Icy dead people

What do you call a lost lycanthrope?
A where-wolf

A chap went to a Halloween party dressed as a harp.
The host asked, "What are you?"
The guest said, “I'm a harp”.
The host said, “Your costume is too short to be a harp”.
The guest said, “So are you calling me a lyre?”

Today's Major Economic Releases

Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
EUR 11:00 EU: Consumer Price Index Flash Estimate 2.1% 2.2%
EUR 11:00 EU: Core Consumer Price Index Flash Estimate 0.9% 1.1%
EUR 11:00 EU: Unemployment Rate 8.1% 8.1%
USD 13:15 US: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 230k 118k
CAD 13:30 Canada: Gross Domestic Product 0.2% 0.0%
CAD 13:30 Canada: Raw Materials Price Index -4.6% -0.5%
USD 13:30 US: Employment Cost Index 0.6% 0.7%
USD 13:30 US: Crude Oil Inventories 6.3m 3.6m

For more information, infographics and the latest currency insights, visit www.halofinancial.com/news