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October

Sterling improves after Theresa May’s dancing

Published: Thursday 04 October 2018

  • US Dollar set to strengthen on employment and factory orders
  • Sad, sad news from Italy
​​By David Johnson

Theresa May’s conference speech started with ABBA’s Dancing Queen and the Prime Minister danced on stage. She also joked about the stage falling apart and the cough that plagued last year’s speech. Hitting your pitfalls head on is never a bad idea but the nitty-gritty of her speech was short on ideas and the Pound slipped as she spoke. It followed a day after Boris Johnson sought to praise Theresa, not to bury her and came in a day that lacked significant data. So then the Pound ended the day in the mid $1.29s and around €1.250.
 
Australian Dollar gets good news
 
We saw overnight that Australia’s trade surplus grew in August. That A$1.6 billion surplus was greater than last month and well above the forecasts of around 1.4 billion. The Australian Dollar strengthened on the news.
 
Dearth of data today
 
There is a lack of data today, other than US initial jobless claims and factory orders. The expectations are for strong data in both releases and the US Dollar is poised to further strengthen on any good news. We will also get a speech from one member of the Federal Reserve Board, but that is about all there is.
 
Canadian Dollar could strengthen further
 
We will get the Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index from Canada, though. The Canadian Dollar has been very strong over the last week and this data is expected to boost that even further.
 
News that will take the fizz from your morning
 
And the final story today will make some weep and others break down. In Conegliano, Veneto in Italy, a vat exploded, destroying 30,000 litres of Prosecco. I can’t share this news with my wife because I know it will devastate her and I think we are all a little sadder right now.
Sick
 
I heard howling and shrieks last night and, when I looked out the window, there were four little hooligans playing football with a cat. I grabbed the phone and was just about to call the police when the cat went 1 - 0 up.

Today's Major Economic Releases

Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
USD 13:30 US: Unemployment Claims 214k 214k
CAD 15:00 Canada: Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index 61.9 62.3
USD 15:00 US: Factory Orders -0.8% 2.2%

For more information, infographics and the latest currency insights, visit www.halofinancial.com/news