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April 2016

German inflation eases higher

Published: Tuesday 12 April 2016

  • German inflation eases higher
  • UK inflation expected to push up
  • US Fed speeches dominate late trade

Monday lacked excitement in the forex market but Tuesday will redress that balance. We started with a fall in Australian consumer confidence and that is turning into a pattern that the Reserve Bank of Australia will want to correct as soon as possible. The Aussie Dollar was a tad weaker on the news. 
Then German inflation data showed a welcome increase. On a consumer price index basis, prices rose by 0.3% in March after being flat in February. The ECB, which committed itself to doing whatever it takes to get inflation back to normal levels, will be very happy and further interest rate cuts from the ECB have taken a back seat in traders' minds this morning.
The day will continue with UK inflation data which is also expected to be a tad more upbeat as the dive in oil and energy prices starts to work its way out of the data. Sterling is likely to be rather uninspiring until Thursday's BOE information but we may see a glimmer of strength if the inflation numbers are stronger than the 0.4% forecast.
This afternoon brings US import prices and treasury budget data but also a raft of speeches from Federal Reserve members. The Philly Feb Chairman is due to speak on economic outlook, so that could be influential. Watch with interest.
That'll be about it for today but Wednesday and Thursday are big data days, so pace yourself.

Choking cure

Two old guys were sitting in a pub garden in Cornwall when a big burly guy sitting at the table across from them started choking on his food.
"Stand aside, I know what to do," shouts one of the old guys. He trundles across to the bloke and slaps him on the back. That has no effect, so he stands the guy up and shakes him from side to side.  Still no response. The guy starts to turn blue so the old guy says, "there ain't nothing for it", before turning him around, yanking down his trousers and placing his tongue on the chap's buttock.
The guy is so shocked that he coughs up the piece of food blocking his airway and rages at the old fella. "What are you doing you old pervert!", as he shouts at the elder man who is heading back to his cider.
"I'll tell you what," says the old fella to his drinking companion, "I ain't keen on it but that hind-lick manoeuvre really does work don't it."

Today's Major Economic Releases

Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
GBP 08:30 UK: CPI, % m/m (y/y) 0.2 0.3
GBP 08:30 UK: Core CPI, % y/y 1.2 1.3
GBP 08:30 UK: RPI, % m/m (y/y) 0.5 0.4
GBP 08:30 UK: Retail Price Index 260.0 261.1
USD 12:30 US: Import prices, % m/m (y/y) -0.3 0.9
USD 18:00 US: Treasury budget balance, bn -52.9 -88.5

Daily Currency Insight by David Johnson

Daily Currency Analysis with Joe De Berniere

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