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April 2016

Crude oil plunges after Doha meeting

Published: Monday 18 April 2016

  • Crude oil plunges after Doha meeting
  • Kiwi gains after inflation bounce
  • Markets await ECB
The Greek government is in the midst of negotiating further bailout terms with their creditors and it would appear they are all going to need to write off yet more debt to get the deal done. This in itself is probably not behind the slight weakening of the Euro in the past couple of days but it does serve to highlight the ongoing trauma affecting the European area.
Other negotiations are in progress at the same time. No agreement was reached on oil production cuts at the OPEC conference in Doha over the weekend. Oil slumped by roughly 5% on the news and many shares fell in lockstep. That has caused a general lowering of equities markets in Asia and Europe in early trade.
New Zealand Dollar continued its seemingly relentless drive against the weakened Pound overnight after it was announced that NZ inflation popped up by 0.2% in the first three months of the year.  That is a neat recovery after a 0.5% drop in the last set of data and it provides further evidence of the resilience of the NZ economy in spite of the general global doom and gloom.
The rest of the day is a quiet one but we will see the minutes from the last Reserve Bank of Australia meeting in the early hours of tomorrow morning (GMT time). We will wait to see their take on the strength of the Aussie Dollar; something that is clearly vexing them. This week will also bring the European Central Bank interest rate decision. No change is forecast but the meeting statement will be interesting to read.
The rest of the week also brings a lot of significant UK data including unemployment, retail sales and government borrowing stats. All will be influential and, as the Pound is so very fragile due to the Brexit debate, the effect of poor data could be significantly magnified.
Sterling is still struggling while scare mongers tell us all how dreadful it would be if the UK left Europe and the others tell us how dreadful it will be if Britain remains a part of the EU. We've had very expensive leaflets, been lectured to by the IMF, the US President and George Osborne about the trauma of leaving the EU and then I heard a comment at the weekend from an elderly gent in my local high street talking to two 'In' campaigners. The feisty old chap said, 'Now, just think about it, we controlled an empire that spanned the globe, fought and won two World Wars, extended democracy to millions and invented the World Wide Web and you think we would perish on our own as an external trading partner to the EU!' With that he shook their hands and walked away. Whether you agree or disagree with his perception, the man has a point and – just as importantly - he has a real sense of class.

Maths lesson

The teacher was getting exasperated with Jack. He was the child of a farming family and he was perfectly pleasant and vey sociable but he was really struggling with maths. She had tried in a number of ways to describe simple subtraction to Jack and he wasn't getting it. Then she thought; I'll put it in terms his huntin', shootin' fishin' background would prepare him for. 
"I know," she said as the idea hit her. "Let's put it this way Jack. If there were three pheasants on the lawn and I shot one, how many pheasants would be left?" She smiled, pleased with her innovation.
"None," Says Jack
"No think about it for a minute Jack," says the teacher. "There were three and you shot just one, so how many are left?"
"None," Says Jack
"I can't work it out. You just don't understand subtraction do you," says the teacher.
"Maybe not but there is one I thing I know that you don't Miss. I know how pheasants react to the sound of a shotgun." 

Today's Major Economic Releases

Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
CAD 13:30 Canada: Foreign securities purchases 13.51 7.52
USD 13:30 FOMC member Dudley speaks    
USD 15:00 US: NAHB housing market index 58 59
NZD 22:30 New Zealand: PSI, index 56.9 56.9

Daily Currency Insight by David Johnson

Daily Currency Analysis with Zeta Webber

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