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April 2016

USD rebounds on durable goods

Published: Tuesday 26 April 2016

  • USD rebounds on durable goods
  • GBP rises as Brexit fears decline – but that is not the end of it
  • NZ trade data awaited
‚ÄčThe disadvantage of being late to the office through the rail strike is that this report is embarrassingly late but the advantage is that I get to use some hindsight in its preparation. The morning saw the US Dollar weaken ahead of US durable goods data but that weakness was reversed to some extent when the data was much better than forecast. 1.8% growth was well above the 3% contract that the markets were expecting and that should give the USD room to appreciate in later trade.
 
The surge in the GBPUSD rate and a similar one against the Euro has been put down to a receding fear over the UK voting to exit the EU. Of course we all know how accurate polls are after the debacle of the exit polls from the last election so I wouldn't put too much store in the early results but those with GBP to sell are getting a bit of respite at the moment.
 
This afternoon's data releases are not what you would call 'tier one' but they could have an impact. I suspect though that traders are all seeking clarity from the Federal Reserve and more guidance on 'Brexit'.
 
Tonight's data includes trade balance and import/export data from New Zealand. The Sterling – NZ Dollar rate is, like most other GBP related exchange rates, higher than it was last week and there has to be a lot of scope for this to rise further but that trade data could thwart those thoughts. Beware.
 
And, if you have ever walked past a Lush store, you probably turned green from the overpowering perfumes but one woman went pink. In fact Abi Shenton thought Razzle Dazzle Bath Oil was a soap and she used it as such, rubbing it into her skin but the bright pink product turned her the same colour. A scrub later, using lemon, olive oil and gritty face wash saw her return to a normal ish colour but I am guessing she smells like a fruit cocktail right now. 
   

After the appointment

 
A man comes home from an appointment with his doctor. He storms in the door, slams it, stomps into the lounge and drops into a chair. His wife fears something awful has happened and follows him in asking, "What's wrong?"
With tears in his eyes, he says, "Doctor Taylor told me I have to take a pill each day for the rest of my life."
"Goodness, is that all it is," says the wife. "There are people taking pills every day all over the country. My mother took a cocktail of 6 pills a day at one stage and she lived to be 96."
"That's all very well," says the husband. "But he's only given me 7 pills."
 

Today's Major Economic Releases

 
Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
USD 13:30 US: Core durable goods order m/m -1.3 0.6
USD 13:30 US: Durable goods order m/m -3.0 1.9
CAD 14:00 Canada: BoC Gov Poloz speaks    
USD 15:00 US: CB consumer confidence 96.2 95.8
NZD 23:45 New Zealand: Trade balance 339 405

Daily Currency Insight and David Johnson

Daily Currency Analysis with Alastair Sweetman

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