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April 2017

Sterling still strengthening after Brexit trigger

Published: Monday 03 April 2017

  • Sterling still strengthening after Brexit trigger
  • Aussie retail sales slip again
  • Big week for data
By David Johnson
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We heard overnight that Australian Retail Sales slipped again in February. A 0.1% fall on the month doesn’t sound like much, but it is a continuation of a developing trend. Hence, the Reserve Bank of Australia is highly unlikely to change the 1.5% Aussie base rate when they meet tomorrow, in spite of concerns they have expressed over increasingly overheated sectors of the property market. The Aussie Dollar is a cent or so weaker this morning against most other currencies.
 
Part of the rise in the GBP-AUD rate is driven by Sterling’s decent performance since the triggering of Article 50.  Spain sneaking a clause about Gibraltar into the EU’s opening negotiating stance has got the hackles up in the UK. Clever from the EU and silly from the UK side; who have been wrong-footed by the EU document. Get it together, Theresa and Co.; you’ll need to be savvier than that over the next two years. The markets, nonetheless, did give us a sort of relief rally once ‘that letter’ had been delivered to the EU.
 
The first week of the month generally brings a plethora of data releases and this one is no exception. Business Confidence Indices abound and there will be a number of employment reports and central banker speeches to boot. The week ends with the traditional ‘first Friday of the month’ counting of US employees. The expectation is that this will be a positive report and the US Dollar, which has weakened a little over the last few weeks, could well burst forth again.
 
Friday will also bring the oft overlooked Canadian employment report. That, too, should show employment growth. The Canadian Dollar has the capacity to strengthen on the back of that data…assuming the forecasters have done their sums right.
 
Welcome to April and have a great week.
 

At the photo shop

 
A guy arrives to collect his prints. The technician who had processed them noticed that most were posed snaps of a woman.
“Here you go,” says the technician, handing over the prints. “Would you like the negatives?”
“Oh, yes please,” says the customer.
“Well her hair’s a mess and she should ease up on the eyeliner.” 
 
For more information, infographics and the latest currency insights, visit www.halofinancial.com/news
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