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August 2016

Sterling recovers on profit take

Published: Tuesday 23 August 2016

  • Sterling recovers on profit take
  • Oil slips but USD weakens too
  • EU leaders offer show of post-Brexit confidence

Is it just me or is BBC Breakfast boring without an Olympic report?
Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande and Matteo Renzi did their best to convince us that all is well in the EU even with the advent of a British exit. They even delivered the message on a boat that is working to halt the wave of migration into Europe. "Many thought the EU was finished after Brexit but that is not how it is," said the Italian Prime Minister. In the financial world, that would be known as talking up your book. i.e. Trying to convince yourself and others that everything is going to be OK. Convinced?
The US Dollar weakened overnight despite oil prices slipping. This appears to be little more than profit taking and consolidation because there hasn’t been much US data for a few days and there is nothing other than the manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) today. That is expected to be marginally improved from last month. The biggie for USD traders this week is Janet Yellen’s speech on Friday alongside the second estimate of Q2 GDP growth, so we have a bit of a wait on our hands.
There is a rash of PMI reports from Europe today culminating in the Eurozone ones. Not much is expected to have changed since last month, so these may not have any discernible impact. This afternoon brings the Eurozone consumer confidence index and that is expected to be slightly less awful than last month’s. Whether that constitutes good news, I am not sure but it won’t harm the Euro if the fact aligns to the forecast.
The only piece of UK data today is the CBI industrial trends survey and that is expected to be a poor one. The forecast is for an index reading of -10; far worse than last month’s -4. Sterling may slip a little on that news but this data is buffered by the better than expected data releases of last week.
I loved the news that the Team GB athletes sang the national anthem at the tops of their voices as their plane took off from Rio. It must feel like their signature tune after 67 medals were won in the 16 days of competition. Still feeling very proud.

Voted Best joke at this year’s Edinburgh Fringe.

'My dad suggested I register for a donor card - he's a man after my own heart'
Masai Graham
And some of the other contenders.
'Why is it old people say 'there's no place like home', yet when you put them in one…..'
Stuart Mitchell
'Don't you hate it when people assume you're rich because you sound posh and went to private school and have loads of money?'
Annie McGrath
'Is it possible to mistake schizophrenia for telepathy, I hear you ask.'
Jordan Brookes 

Today's Major Economic Releases 

Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
EUR 09:00 EU: Flash manufacturing PMI 52.0 51.8
EUR 09:00 EU: Flash services PMI 52.9 53.1
GBP 11:00 UK: CBI industrial order expectations -4 -10
USD 15:00 US: Flash manufacturing PMI 52.9 53.1
EUR 15:00 EU: Consumer confidence -8 -8
NZD 23:45 New Zealand: Trade balance 127m -320m

FX Research by David Johnson

Daily Currency Analysis with Michael Hart

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