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December 2016

Brent Oil prices continue to rise

Published: Thursday 01 December 2016

  • Brent Oil prices continue to rise 
  • Markets turn to this weekend’s referendum in Italy

Oil prices have continued to rise after yesterday's Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreement to limit production and the price of Brent Crude Oil is trading above $52 this morning. The cartel has agreed to cut production by about 1.2 million barrels per day. The market has been oversupplied by around 2 million barrels per day for the last two years, so the agreement should help to keep the oil prices above $50, which will help convince non-OPEC members from increasing output. Time will tell, as many members have notoriously flouted agreements in the past, but for now, petrocurrencies have appreciated along with the oil price.
This morning we await confirmation of Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) in the Eurozone and some minor data from Italy and Spain. Data globally has been improving of late and this should be reflected in the headline figures. It is unlikely to move markets as we trade sideways ahead of the Italian referendum over the weekend. A "No" vote has been largely priced in and if we do get that confirmation, the Euro should continue to trade heavily and markets will then look ahead to next year’s European elections for the next catalyst. Unless we see a shock “Yes” vote, the Euro should continue to struggle to maintain any rallies.
In the UK, Manufacturing PMI data is due this morning. The figure is expected to show a continued improvement in headline activity to 54.4 from 54.3 in October, though as in previous months, the input prices will be keenly monitored for inflation effects.  The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) data from the US this afternoon will be closely watched, however, as mentioned earlier, the focus will then switch to this weekend's referendum in Italy.

One liners

What do you call a bear with no teeth? A gummy bear!
I used to like my neighbours, until they put a password on their Wi-Fi.
Never argue with a fool. They will lower you to their level and then beat you with experience.
Crime doesn’t pay? Does that mean my job is a crime?

Today's Major Economic Releases

Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
GBP 09:30 UK: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index 54.3 54.3
EUR 10:00 EU: Unemployment Rate 10.0% 10.0%
USD 13:30 US: Unemployment Claims 251k 252k
USD 14:45 US: Final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index 53.9 53.9
USD 15:00 US: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index 52.1 52.9
Daily Currency Analysis by Ricky Nelson

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