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December 2016

Aussie Dollar weaker on drop in Gross Domestic Product and wage growth

Published: Wednesday 07 December 2016

  • Aussie Dollar weaker on drop in Gross Domestic Product and wage growth 
  • Italian banks downgraded
  • Positive UK data should boost Sterling

The Australian Dollar remained weak overnight after data showed wages are growing at the slowest annualised pace since 1997 and the economy itself shrank by 0.5% in the third quarter of the year. That’s the first quarter of contraction since 2011. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision not to move interest rates at their last meeting and their hints that rates would stay put for some time to come could be revised if those figures are also reflected in this quarter’s results.
Europe’s woes continue as ratings agencies made moves to downgrade the Italian banking sector to a negative outlook. That’s not surprising when two of Italy’s largest banks are scrabbling around trying to secure €18 billion of extra funding. The European Central Bank (ECB) meets to set interest rates tomorrow. No change is expected but it will be interesting to see if they comment on the Italian situation. This morning’s German industrial production was below forecasts and that hasn’t helped the Euro.
The only data of note for the UK is manufacturing output this morning which fell unexpectedly by 0.9% compared to the 0.2% forecast as it marked the biggest decline since February. UK industrial output also fell by 1.3%, driven by a slide in oil and gas extraction. And overnight tonight we will get, what is likely to be an upbeat Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) house price index. However, before that, the UK Prime Minister is being pressed to reveal much more information about her negotiating stance with the EU over Brexit, or “Brevival”, as I am thinking of it. Now, call me old fashioned, but anyone who has ever negotiated anything will know you never tell your counterparty what you are thinking in advance. Somehow, that little tactical thing has never made it to the ear of opposition MPs. Gawd ‘elp us guv.
And we have news that sometimes Lady Luck has to force herself upon you. 70-year-old Dante Castillo lives in New Jersey. He usually picks his own ‘lucky’ numbers for the State lottery but when the clerk in the store in Lakewood accidentally sold him a lucky dip selection of numbers, Dante still bought them and took the ticket home. He won $1 million with that ticket or can claim $1,000 a week for life. I am guessing, at the age of 70, Dante will take the big cash prize. There no point pushing your luck. 


Bob has driven over to Pete’s farm to invite him out for a drink. He parks around the back of the hay barn and walks through towards the house but spots movement in the machinery shed.

As he peers into the building, he sees Pete dressed in nothing but a thong, dancing writhing and churning his hips in front of his newest Massey Fergusson.

“What the hell are you doing?!” shouts Bob.
Pete stops dancing and says, “Sorry you had to see that, Bob. Truth is, my wife has been ignoring me lately, so I talked to my doctor and he referred me to an analyst and, after an hour of me explaining the problems me and Brenda are having in the bedroom department, he said I needed to do something sexy to a tractor.”

Today's Major Economic Releases

Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
GBP 09:30 UK: Manufacturing Production month-on-month 0.6% -0.9%
GBP 09:30 UK: Industrial Production month-on-month -0.4% -1.3%
CAD 15:00 Bank of Canada Rate Statement    
CAD 15:00 Bank of Canada Overnight Rate 0.50% 0.50%
USD 15:00 US: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary 5.49m 5.53m
USD 15:30 US: Crude Oil Inventories -0.9m -1.4m
NZD 20:00 Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Wheeler speaks    
Daily Currency Analysis by David Johnson

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