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February 2016

Daily Currency Insight

Published: Thursday 18 February 2016

  • FOMC releases Dovish Minutes 
  • Aussie Dollar remains under pressure 
  • Focus on ECB Monetary Policy Meeting 
The US Dollar lost a little ground overnight as we saw the release of the minutes from the recent meeting of the Federal Reserve. The committee confirmed that the FOMC saw that there were now more downside risks to the US economy and they also acknowledged that the stronger Dollar and lower oil prices could keep inflation subdued for longer than initially thought.  With renewed uncertainty in global markets, it is unlikely that the Fed will take any risks to the economy and traders are now paring back bets that there will be a hike in interest rates this year.
The Australian Dollar lost some ground too as January employment data disappointed. The economy lost 7,900 jobs against an expectation of a rise of 13,000 and the unemployment rate rose by 0.2% from 5.8%; predicted at 5.8%. This figure in isolation is not likely to spur the RBA to make any rash moves in the short term however if there is a continued deterioration over the coming months. There may be more calls for a cut in rates to stimulate growth which would result in further weakening of the Australian Dollar.
Today is devoid of any meaningful data so the market focus will inevitably turn to the ECB meeting minutes due for release early this afternoon. ECB Chief Mario Draghi has been dropping heavy hints that the central bank may do more to support the ailing economy at the March meeting and it will be interesting to see if he faces any opposition internally. If we hear any clues as to what that support may look like the Euro could begin to lose some ground.


A woman is walking down the street when she sees a beggar woman asking for cash.
She pulls a £20 note out of her bag but before she hands it over, she asks, “Will you spend this money on chocolate?”
“Are you mad, “Says the bag lady.
“Will you waste it on flashy lingerie?”
“What! “says the bag lady. “Are you crazy?”
“Will you get your hair done?”
“Lady, do I look like woman who would trash £20 on a hair do?”
“Then,” Says the lady. “You should come to dinner with my husband and I tonight.”
“Why?” says the bag lady
“Well I want him to see what a woman looks like when she gives up nice clothes, hair maintenance and chocolate.”

FX Research by Ricky Nelson

Daily Currency Analysis with Zeta Webber

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