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February 2017

Sterling up as strong data beats Brexit gloomsters

Published: Tuesday 14 February 2017

  • Sterling up as strong data beats Brexit gloomsters
  • Euro slackens as Greek problem drones on
  • USD traders await Janet Yellen’s testimony 
Happy St Valentine’s Day everyone.
 
I saw a report that said, if the Brexit referendum were held today, Remain would win. But if my granddad had carried a handbag, he might have been my grandma. Why is that news?
 
Monday was a quiet one, with the wrangling between Greece and its creditors taking the limelight. That continues; and the Greek finance minister is denying any deadline being set for an agreement by clearly annoyed International Monetary Fund (IMF) and German officials. He may deny it, but many believe the deadline is real. The Euro is a tad weaker ahead of Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Industrial Production data, due this morning. 
 
Overnight news brought stronger than expected Australian Business Confidence data and that has boosted the Australian Dollar somewhat. That strength will have been helped by stronger than expected Chinese Inflation data. Rising energy and commodity prices will be behind the Chinese numbers and those same rises boost the value of Aussie exports.
 
Today’s big news will be Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve Chair’s testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. Clues, hints and statements relating to the timing and rapidity of US interest rate hikes will be the key pieces of information sought by traders and that will influence the USD today. 
 
Sterling starts the day a little stronger, as traders prepare for what they think will be stronger inflation data. The Pound is up against the USD and Euro…and pretty much everything, really. About time, too. The strength of the UK economy is shining through the gloom of the Bremainers and this week’s data looks set to continue that upbeat tone.
 
And Donald Trump’s official inauguration picture is going viral for the wrong reason. The quote emblazoned across the picture of a smiling president says, “No dream is too big, no challenge is to great. Nothing we want for the future is beyond our reach”. Even my spellcheck understands that there is an ‘o’ missing. Please don’t let his marketing people near any legislation.
 

Domestic Karma

 
I believe that every sock that goes missing in the laundry returns as a spare Tupperware lid.
 
 

Today's Major Economic Releases
 

Market
BST
Data/Event
Previous
Expected
GBP 09:30 UK: Consumer Price Index 
1.6%
1.9%
GBP 09:30 UK: Core Consumer Price Index 1.6% 1.7%
GBP 09:30 UK: Producer Price Index 1.8% 1.0%
GBP 09:30 UK: Retail Price Index 2.5% 2.8%
EUR 10:00 EU: Flash Gross Domestic Product 0.5% 0.5%
EUR 10:00 German: ZEW Economic Sentiment 16.6 15.1
EUR 10:00 EU: Industrial Production 1.5% -1.4%
USD 13:30 US: Producer Price Index  0.3% 0.3%
USD 13:30 US: Core Producer Price Index 0.2% 0.2%
USD 15:00 US: Federal Chair Yellen Speaks    
 
Daily Currency Analysis by David Johnson