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February 2017

USD shaken but not stirred by the Trumpification of American politics

Published: Friday 17 February 2017

  • USD shaken but not stirred by the Trumpification of American politics
  • NZ retail sales improve and NZD does likewise
  • Sterling awaits UK retail sales
By David Johnson
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The US Dollar is remarkably stoic in spite of the turbulence in the White House. Just a few weeks into the new administration, the ‘fine-tuned machine’ of an administration; as described by Mr Trump, has seen the resignation of a national security advisor, rumours of Kremlin infiltration and the President directly attacking the press. Mr Trump’s nominee for the replacement national security advisor has, understandably, said no to the job. Mr Trump did make one very accurate statement though. He said, “I don’t think there’s ever been a President elected who in this short period of time has done what we have done.”
 
Away from the political mayhem, the US housing data was stronger than expected but wasn’t enough to strengthen the USD. In fact, the greenback weakened slightly on the day and the lack of US data today is likely to see that status quo maintained.
 
Strong retail sales data was released in New Zealand overnight and the NZ Dollar has reflected that with a little strength. Many institutions are raising their expectations of further NZ Dollar strength, so beware if you are a buyer of the Kiwi.
 
Retail sales will be the key to the Pound today. We are expecting this morning’s release of January data to be upbeat after the unexpected dip we saw in December. However, as with so much UK data, surprises are almost expected these days, so be ready for volatility early on.
 
And Jurassic Park is getting nearer to reality. Harvard University scientists believe they are only a few years away from producing a hybrid Mammoth/Asian elephant embryo. Let’s just hope no one has any velociraptor DNA knocking about. And if they do recreate the feisty beasts, don’t let them anywhere near the kitchen. I’ve seen what they can do.
 

First try


I’ll tell you what old man; I tried that rugby football game for the first time last weekend. It was pretty rough but I think I got the hang of it. In fact, not wishing to blow my own trumpet or anything but I think I did rather well.
 
I managed to put the ball thingy down in the bit behind the goal posts a few times and as far as I know, that is the prime raison d’etre for players of the game.
 
Anyway, I was feeling pretty chuffed with myself when I got back to the clubhouse but all everyone kept saying was, “Nice try. Nice try.” Condescending oiks. I’m never going back there I can tell you. 
 

Today's Major Economic Releases
 

Market
BST
Data/Event
Previous
Expected
EUR 09:00 EU: Current Account 36.1b 28.7b
GBP 09:30 UK: Retail Sales -1.9% 1.0%
CAD 13:30 Canada: Foreign Securities Purchases 7.24b 11.59b
USD 15:00 US: Conference Board Leading Index 0.5% 0.5%


For more information, infographics and the latest currency insights, visit www.halofinancial.com/blog
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