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January 2016

Daily Currency Insight

Published: Tuesday 26 January 2016

  • Oil down, shares down and Sterling down
  • Draghi gives strong speech
It appears Greece may be hung out to dry by the EU as they are facing being shut off in a bid to halt mass migration from Africa and the Middle East. The European Commission may change the scope of the Shengen zone to exclude Greece; halting the flow of migrants who have crossed the Mediterranean and fund their way from Turkey into Greece.  It's a good thing Europe is all about Union isn't it.
Monday's data was skimpy but the CBI showed that UK manufacturers started the year reasonably level with the end of 2015. Exports are still hard to come by but that is to be expected when you consider the state of the global economy. However, the UK exported a record number of cars last year and that is good news. Tuesday isn't going to be a big data day either. We get the US consumer confidence index at 3pm UK time and that should be largely in line with last month but that is about it. Traders are eyeing Thursday's expected downgrading of GDP growth for the UK and that is weighing on the Pound.
German business expectations weakened a little last month according to the IFO institute. Nonetheless, the Euro gained a little ground yesterday following a rumbustious defence of his policies by ECB president Draghi. The chances are we will see little change today because there is practically no EU data to work on but there will always be comments from the ECB members to keep things bubbling along.
Following another drop in oil prices yesterday, we heard news that shares in China dropped by 6% in late trade. There is every likelihood this will replicate itself to some degree in other markets. Beware.
Other than this, have a great Tuesday and Happy Australia Day to all our Aussie readers. ‘Good on ya’.

In class

A teacher is showing pictures to her primary school class. "What's this?" she says as she holds up a picture.
Emma puts her hand up, "It's a cat, Miss."
"That's right", says the teacher. "And this one?"
"It's a bear," Says Gregory.
"Well done", says the teacher. And, holding up a picture of a Deer, she asks, "And what about this one?"
Silence ensues.
"I'll give you a clue", says the teacher, "It's probably what your mum calls your dad."
Samantha puts her hand up. "Is it a useless waste of space, Miss?"
FX Research by David Johnson
Daily Currency Analysis with Joe De Berniere
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