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July 2017

Sterling steady ahead of next week’s Bank of England meeting

Published: Tuesday 15 August 2017

  • Sterling steady ahead of next week’s Bank of England meeting
  • US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data should show slowdown
By David Johnson
 
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Distributive Trades survey produced a positive result that was in step with recent retail sales data. So high streets were busy in June in spite of all the newspaper doom and gloom over… well, everything really. Retailers also placed more orders in July, presenting optimism for future sales. Sterling started the day well but slipped a little before the day was out. A Friday devoid of UK data looks set to leave Sterling circulating around the $1.30 level and €1.12. The Pound is capped by a trend line resistance level at $1.31 but is trying to rally from last week’s dip to 1.11 but that recovery is a bit anaemic. It may be that traders are waiting for next week’s Bank of England meeting for guidance.
 
From the Eurozone, this morning we will get the final calculation of consumer confidence for July. We’ll also see the same sort of index for the service sector and the industrial confidence index and they are all forecast to be a tad weaker than last month. Maybe that will allow the Pound and USD to recover some ground after recent Euro strength.
 
This afternoon brings Canadian GDP growth data; that is expected to show 0.2% growth on the month. That’s in keeping with the previous figure, so the Canadian Dollar will probably remain unmoved by the figures.
 
That is likely to be overshadowed by the first estimate of US economic growth in Q2. A slowdown to 1.3% after last quarter’s 1.9% growth is forecast. Anything worse than that would see the USD lose strength and may allow the Pound to breach $1.31 and the Euro to target $1.18. That will also overshadow the personal consumption and expenditure data but the Federal Reserve watches that for signs of tightness in the US consumer economy, so it’s important.
 
The Swiss Franc has been in the news as it loses ground – particularly against the Euro. The Euro – Swiss Franc exchange rate is edging back towards the CHF1.20 level that the Swiss National Bank abandoned in early 2015. The timing of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) tightening of monetary policy is the key to this par, so it is one to watch.
 
And the Daily Express is reporting on mummified bodies found in Nazca, Peru which appear to fit the E.T. - little green man - alien format. If they are right, then it might explain the Incas, Mayans and Aztecs and all their advanced technology but it could…just maybe….be a hoax. Universities are investigating, we are told. 
 

My house

Friend: Where do you live?
Me: With my parents.
Friend: Where does your parents live?
Me: With me.
Friend: Where is your house?
Me: Next to my neighbour’s house.
Friend: Where is your neighbour’s house?
Me: If I tell you, you won’t believe me.
Friend: Tell me.
Me: Next to my house.  

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