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July 2017

Markets look at Bank of England’s speeches

Published: Monday 14 August 2017

  • Markets look at Bank of England’s speeches
  • Theresa May’s speech to mark a new course for the Tories 
By Joe De Berniere
The Pound was very flat yesterday across the board.  Still hovering around 1.13 vs Euro and 1.29 vs USD.  This was generally caused on last Thursday when the European Central Bank (ECB) gave a surprisingly upbeat assessment of the Eurozone’s economic prospects, boosting Euro and UK’s disappointing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) figures for June. There was no data of note yesterday. The only piece of data being the German Trade Balance but this came exactly in line with forecasts, as did European Sentix Investor Confidence. 

Sterling now appears to be waiting for updates from the Bank of England (BoE) as to the UK’s outlook on interest rates.  Talks by two Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members, Andy Haldane and Ben Broadbent, today will be closely watched. Mr Haldane recently hinted he could vote for an interest rate hike at the BoE’s next meeting in August. Mr Broadbent is yet to share his views publically since the narrow vote to keep rates unchanged last month and is seen as key to assessing the chances of the first BoE rate hike in 10 years. If Broadbent joins him, then the market may start to wonder if the committee will be split 4-4 down the middle at August’s meeting, which would leave BoE Governor Mark Carney with the deciding vote.

Theresa May is today due to deliver a speech, which will supposedly mark a new course for the Conservative Party in the wake of their reduced majority.  The main UK news this week will be Wednesday’s jobs data.  Unemployment is forecast to stay at 4.6%, but average earnings are projected to decline. Weaker figures may push the Pound even lower. 

Quick fire jokes

I got fired from the eyeglass warehouse because I couldn’t focus.

I don’t trust trees. They are kinda shady. 

My wife? It’s difficult to say what she does – she sells sea shells on the sea shore. 

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