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June 2016

Sterling spikes on 'Remain' poll gain

Published: Monday 20 June 2016

  • Sterling spikes on 'Remain' poll gain
  • Immense week of volatility promised
Tim Peake arrived back on earth just in time to see England win a Rugby Union test series in Australia for the first time. That is pretty phenomenal and it wasn't as though Australia played badly because they didn't but they had no answer to England’s defence at all. What an event. So we head towards the shortest night of the year in the UK with a lot of grinning English Rugby supporters. Let’s hope our footballers can do something equally phenomenal and that our 'fans' don't get the team banned before that can happen. Oh and Tim...Awesome.

And we start a momentous week for the UK with the campaign for remaining in the EU in the ascendency according to the polls. We have to remember that polls have been spectacularly inaccurate in the last referendum and in the last UK election. Hence the pressure is on both camps to get their message out after two days of silence in respect of the murdered MP, Jo Cox.
As far as this week is concerned, there really is only one story; the referendum in the UK on EU membership. That happens on Thursday; something you will be very aware of unless you have been living as a hermit, wearing headphones and contemplating your navel ... on Mars...for the last three months. There are other data releases this week but they will be largely side-lined as the global economy braces itself for the fallout from the potential 'Leave' vote. I have found it interesting how world financial leaders have talked about the potential UK exit from the EU as something that will cause chaos and mayhem but there is no reason for any of that to happen if they - the world financial leaders - take steps to avert it though rapid trade talks and interim measures designed to obviate the effects of nervousness in financial markets. They have perhaps - for reasons we can debate - forgotten that they are leaders and not spectators.
Either way, the Pound is in for a monster week of volatility. We have already seen more than 4 cents of movement in the Sterling - US Dollar rate over the weekend after the 'Remain' camp showed well in one poll. That may be just the start. That sudden jump suggests a lot of traders and speculators were already heavily slanted towards GBP weakness. Whatever you need to do, in whichever currency pair, it has to be worth placing a limit order in the market over the next few days to see if you can capture some extraordinary volatility. Please contact your Halo Financial Consultant for more information. 

The gift

A barrister stormed into the office of his client. "My clerk of chambers tells me you sent a case of 1993 Dom Perignon to the judge. Justice Miller is as straight as an arrow. He'll erupt at the merest notion of bribery and Margot Ponsonby-Smythe who is acting for the plaintiff is a firebrand. We don't stand a chance of winning this case now. What do you think you were doing?"
"Relax," says the client. "I signed it from Ponsonby-Smythe."


Today's Major Economic Releases 

Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
EUR 07:00 German PPI m/m 0.1% 0.4%
CAD 13:30 Canada: Wholesale sales m/m -1.0% 0.2%
AUD 15:30 CB Leading index m/m 0.1% 0.1%

FX Research by David Johnson
Daily Currency Analysis with Michael Condron

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