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June 2016

EU referendum day – in case you hadn't noticed

Published: Thursday 23 June 2016

  • EU referendum day – in case you hadn't noticed
  • Sterling strengthens on Bremain poll lead 

The surprise results keep on coming; in the Euro 2016 championship. Iceland beat Austria supported by 10% of the entire Icelandic population in the stadium. The republic of Ireland beat Italy to enter the final 16 as well and Johanna Konta beat Petra Kvitova to reach the quarter-finals in Eastbourne.
Whether the EU referendum will turn up yet another upset is a moot point until 6 or 7am tomorrow but the markets are bound to be volatile and twitch on each new hint from the pollsters overnight tonight. Suffice to say that the 'Bremain' vote is ahead in the latest polls and Sterling has strengthened on that news. In fact Sterling has appreciate by around 2% across its major pairs during this last week. However, with the gap between the in and out voters rarely more than 5%, that middle 10% of undecideds is the key and that means anything could happen.
If UK votes remain the Pound should strengthen although much of that has already been factored into the value of the Pound.
Away from the referendum, the US impact on the USD.
US Senators have occupied the Senate floor to demand a vote on proposed laws designed to stop terrorists and the mentally ill from obtaining guns. Surely you would have to be mentally unstable to think that was a bad plan. Why then does it take this kind of direct action to get the law discussed? Sort it out America.

Odd Request

A nice, calm and respectable lady went into the chemists. She asked for the pharmacist, looked him straight in the eye and said, "I would like to buy some cyanide." 
The pharmacist asked, "Why in the world do you need cyanide?"
"I am going to poison my husband."
The pharmacist reels backward. "Good grief! I can't give you cyanide to kill your husband! That's against the law! I'll lose my licence! They'll throw us both in jail! Absolutely no way."
The lady reached into her handbag and pulled out a series of pictures showing her husband entering a motel with the pharmacist's wife. The last picture is taken through the window blinds and shows them in bed together.
The pharmacist looked at the pictures before handing them back and saying, "You didn't tell me you had a prescription."

Today's Major Economic Releases 

Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
GBP ALL DAY EU Membership Vote    
EUR 09:00 EU: Flash manufacturing PMI 51.5 52.6
EUR 09:00 EU: Flash services PMI 52.3 52.4
USD 13:30 US: Unemployment claims 277K 271K
USD 14:45 US: Flash manufacturing PMI 50.7 50.5
USD 15:00 US: New home sales 619K 561K
USD 15:00 US: CB leading index m/m 0.6% 0.2%

FX Research by David Johnson

Daily Currency Analysis with Chris Verdet

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