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June 2017

Sterling on back foot, thanks to Bank of England and Brexit

Published: Wednesday 21 June 2017

  • Sterling on back foot, thanks to Bank of England and Brexit
  • UK government borrowing may boost Sterling
  • No change expected from Reserve Bank of New Zealand
By David Johnson
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Are you all prepared? Got your Druid robes ready for the Solstice? Ready for the roadworks at Stonehenge? (I’m never ready for that myself). How on earth have we reached the longest day of the year when it was Christmas only last week, I have no idea. Enjoy the extended daylight if you can.
 
In the forex markets, Sterling remains weak after the dovish comments from the Bank of England Governor and as the Brexit negotiations got underway. At 1.13 against the Euro, the Pound is at a support level that has forestalled further decline since November 2016. The signals are mixed, so it is guesswork whether this support at €1.1275 will continue to hold the Pound steady but protection below that level makes sense. A break below there would make €1.10 a fairly safe bet. The Pound may find some respite in this morning’s UK Public Sector borrowing data which is forecast to show a fall in the government’s borrowing levels.
 
Sterling has also slipped below USD 1.26 and seems set to hit the trendline support at $1.2540. A fall below there would be quite a significant change of range and the relative strength indicators would suggest it is likely. If we see $1.24902, then a further fall to $1.23 is highly likely. 
 
And today, the Queen speaks at the Opening of Parliament – apparently, there will be less ceremony this time around, owing to the snap election decision, but she is due to discuss some of the key policies and legislation that will need to be tackled as Brexit takes shape.

Sterling is soft against the Australasian currencies as well and a fall to NZ$1.71 is looking fairly certain. That is marked by a trendline that started back in November 2016 and provided support for the Pound in Jan and Feb this year before the Pound started gathering strength. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is very unlikely to change the NZ base rate when they meet later tonight but 1.75% is still very attractive to international investors who are comparing with 0% to 0.5% elsewhere.
 
It seems that it is too hot for much data today; traders may feel the need to find a hostelry with cold beer instead. Can’t say I’d blame them but I hope yours is a good day. Oh and slip, slap slop….if you remember that.

Directions

 
The Maître D’ of an elegant restaurant recoiled in disgust as a man in boots, torn jeans and a leather jacket approached him. “Oi mate,” he said, “where’s the lav?”
“Well Sir,” said the Maître D’, “Go down the hall and turn left. When you see the door with the sign that says ’Gentlemen’; pay no attention to it and go in anyway.”
 

Today's Major Economic Releases

 

Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
GBP 09:30 UK: Public Sector Net Borrowing 9.6b 7.3b
GBP 11:30 UK: The Queen's Opening of Parliament Speech    
GBP 12:00 Bank of England Member Haldane Speaks    
USD 15:00 US: Existing Home Sales 5.57m 5.54m
USD 15:30 US: Crude Oil Inventories -1.7m -1.2m
NZD 22:00 Reserve Bank of New Zealand Official Cash Rate 1.75% 1.75%
NZD 22:00 Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Statement    

For more information, infographics and the latest currency insights, visit www.halofinancial.com/blog
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