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June 2017

Sterling largely unmoved by Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) deal

Published: Tuesday 27 June 2017

  • Sterling largely unmoved by Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) deal
  • New Zealand trade surplus shrinks - NZD weaker
By David Johnson
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Sterling is doing its best impression of a large boulder at the moment. It appears to be an immovable object; immune to news and unaffected by politics. That can’t last - and it won’t. However, with only the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) distributive trades survey to deal with today, Sterling volatility is unlikely to resume before tomorrow. Mind you, the CBI’s retail sector survey is expected to be quite poor, so there is scope for a bounce in the Pound if the high streets have been busier than forecast. There is potential for volatility in tomorrow’s parliamentary vote on the Queen’s Speech, which may be opposed by some MPs, but the deal with the DUP guarantees its passage, even if it wasn’t certain before.
 
We heard overnight that New Zealand’s trade surplus was much smaller than the forecasters had envisaged in May. NZ$103 million was barely a quarter of the forecast level and that weakened the New Zealand Dollar. Ironically, the recent strength of the NZD is a major contributor to increased imports and tougher trading conditions for New Zealand’s exporters. Thus is the natural corrective nature of a floating currency. 
 
Tuesday, I am sorry to say, is pretty devoid of interesting data or events. This afternoon will offer up the US Consumer Confidence Index. That is forecast to be weaker than last month and that will pour cold water on the heated debate over further US rate hikes. However, the US Dollar is a bit like the Pound in its inertia. Not even a warning to Syria from the US President managed to strengthen the USD, which traditionally strengthens at times of geo-political tension. I guess you could argue that geo-politically, the world is permanently tense right now.  We have speeches from the Presidents of the Philadelphia and Minneapolis Federal Reserve today. In the absence of much else to do, traders will watch those with keen interest.
 
Not much more to report, I am sad to say, but have a great day and remember that in 1898, the first solo circumnavigation of the globe was completed by Joshua Slocum. That’s 119 years ago. I have to say, that makes anything I do today look pretty lame by comparison.
 

The Mummy

 
An archaeologist was digging in the Negev Desert in Israel and came upon a casket containing a mummy. After examining it, he called the curator of the Israel museum in Jerusalem.
"I've just discovered a 3,000-year old mummy of a man who died of heart failure!” the excited scientist exclaimed.
 
The curator replied, "Bring him in. We'll check it out."
A week later the curator called the archaeologist, "You were right about both the mummy's age and cause of death. How in the world did you know?"
"Easy. There was a piece of paper in his hand. When we translated it we realised it said, '10,000 Shekels. 300 to 1. Goliath to win'."

For more information, infographics and the latest currency insights, visit www.halofinancial.com/news
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