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March 2016

Volatility likely in AUD and NZD

Published: Tuesday 08 March 2016

  • Sterling bounces a little against the Euro
  • EZ Q4 growth data due but no change expected
  • Volatility likely in AUD and NZD
Sterling continues to struggle against most other currencies as the EU exit stories rumble on. Interestingly though, it may be just starting to dawn on investors that Britain's exit from the EU would be bad for the EU as well. The UK is the fourth largest contributor to the EU budget but only ranks eighth in terms of EU expenditure. That net £8.5 billion a year will be missed if Britain leaves and would put a lot of financial pressure on Germany, France, Spain and Italy. The Sterling – Euro rate is up a tad and may well make further gains in spite of warnings from some members of the Bank of England that UK interest rates will stay low for a long long time. There is no UK data today to change that perception but the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney will be speaking this morning and will be watched very closely.
We will also get the final Q4 economic growth data for the Eurozone. That should reflect the 0.3% quarterly growth seen in the previous estimates, so not a lot of change is expected.
This is a quiet day for data all round but there is room for volatility in the Canadian Dollar this afternoon when housing starts and building permits data is released.
Overnight tonight we will get retail spending data from New Zealand and a consumer confidence index from Australia. There is likely to be some volatility overnight in the Australasian Dollars but many traders will keep their powder dry until tomorrow evening when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its monetary policy decision. The best bet is that they will leave their base rate on hold but the strengthening NZ Dollar isn't helping the domestic economy or their exports. There is scope for another interest rate cut from the RBNZ and traders will be nervous of that. There may well be opportunities to get automated limit orders filled tonight.
Contact your Halo Financial Consultant if you would like to look at that option.
And Happy International Women's Day; an event which has its roots in clothing worker strikes in New York in 1908, UK suffragette movements of the 1910s and then found its official date of 8th March in 1914; just a few months before the start of WW1.  At a time when women are being victimised by terrorist groups and enslaved in so many countries, married off before puberty in others and forced or sold into marriage in many communities, it doesn't seem that some parts of the world have come very far does it? I hope you have a great day whatever your gender.

The interview

A Company is hiring a junior legal assistant. In an interview, the MD asks the young man in front of him, "Would you describe yourself as an honest man?"
"I definitely would," says the earnest young man.
"Can you give me an example of your honesty?" asks the MD.
"Well," says the young man. "My parents lent me £48,000 to see me right through my degree and I paid them back in full right after I completed my very first court case."
"That's impressive," says the MD. "What kind of case was that?"
"My dad sued me for the money he lent me."

Major Economic Releases 

Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
EUR 10:00 EUR: Revised GDP q/q 0.3 0.3
USD 11:00 US: NFIB small business index 93.9 94.5
CAD 13:15 CAD: Housing starts 166 181
CAD 13:30 CAD: Building Permits m/m 11.3 -2.2

FX Research by David Johnson

Daily Currency Analysis with Joe De Berniere

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