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November 2015

Daily Currency Insight

Published: Friday 13 November 2015



It's Friday 13th. Yay! That might seem an odd response for all the paraskevidekatriaphobics out there. Those who fear what is supposed to be an unlucky day in western culture are only reacting to some odd superstitions surrounding Christ's crucifixion and the number of guests that attended his last supper. Other than that, this huge mythology surrounding Fridays that just happen to fall on the 13th day of the calendar month in a calendar that is entirely fabricated by humans is pure hokum.  And 13 is Taylor Swifts lucky number so it must be nonsense. Shake it off; that's what I say.
 
As the week draws to a close, the main stories today are the Eurozone trade balance & economic growth data and the US retail sales figures. On the European side of things, it is kind of inevitable that the weaker Euro would assist exporters but domestic demand is suffering at the hands of austerity measures and dire unemployment figures. Hence, we believe the trade surplus will have declined once again. The euro is unlikely to react significantly because it is widely expected but anything below 0.3% growth in the GDP data will hammer another nail into the Euro's coffin. By the way, the euro is already weak on the back of ECB comments suggesting further quantitative easing and/or lower interest rates are imminent.
 
On the US side of things, I have cover the technical levels in the section below but the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December, which initially strengthened the US Dollar, has declined and the Dollar has slipped back accordingly. The other US data is the release of business inventories and the Fed watches that for signs of extra capacity in the economy. Expect volatility around 10.00am, 1.30 pm and 3pm (all UK times).
 
Other than these morsels, today isn't big on data but it is big on volatility in the equities markets and elsewhere. This follows comments from central bankers on both sides of the Atlantic and a shocking profit warning from Rolls Royce.
 
I'll leave you with a story of Karma. Councillor Jackie Burns of Hamilton in Scotland was part of a group that got rid of all the public toilets in the town. So how fitting is it that he has just been handed an on-the-spot fine for relieving himself in public after he was caught short whilst waiting for a taxi.  Sometimes these stories just write themselves.
 
Have a great weekend.



USD

This is a crucial level for the GBPUSD rate. Having broken below the uptrend earlier in the month, the GBPUSD rate has bounced and is sitting below that same line. This is either a point at which we will see the break confirmed, in which case the Pound will fall back again and make new lows or it could be the point at which Sterling breaks back above the resistance line; it becomes support and the next target (short term downtrend) is tested just below $1.54. Short term Dollar buyers who are risk averse should be thinking about trading here. Dollar sellers could have stop loss orders around $1.5250 to avoid being hit by a sudden push higher.



Men and women – the difference

 
Her Diary:
Tonight, I thought my boyfriend was acting weird. We had made plans to meet at a nice restaurant for dinner. I was shopping with my friends all day long, so I thought he was upset at the fact that I was a bit late, but he made no comment on it. Conversation wasn’t flowing, so I suggested that we go somewhere quiet so we could talk. He agreed, but he didn’t say much. I asked him what was wrong. He said, ‘Nothing.’ I asked him if it was my fault that he was upset. He said he wasn’t upset, that it had nothing to do with me, and not to worry about it. On the way home, I told him that I loved him. He smiled slightly, and kept driving. I can’t explain his behaviour. I don’t know why he didn’t say, ‘I love you, too.’ When we got home, I felt as if I had lost him completely, as if he wanted nothing to do with me anymore. He just sat there quietly, and watched TV. He continued to seem distant and absent. Finally, with silence all around us, I decided to go to bed. About 15 minutes later, he came to bed. But I still felt that he was distracted, and his thoughts were somewhere else. He fell asleep – I cried. I don’t know what to do. I’m almost sure that his thoughts are with someone else. My life is a disaster.

His Diary:
Motorcycle won’t start… can’t figure out why.