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November 2015

Daily Currency Insight

Published: Friday 27 November 2015

  • Sterling dips in consumer confidence
  • UK GDP may show upward adjustment
  • EU Consumer and Industrial confidence due this morning
What to do about ISIS seems to be as polarising as Marmite although perhaps not as divisive as Katie Hopkins. Phew. Everyone is in agreement that something must be done but are they are also completely undecided over what that something looks like.  I am sure a fudge of some description will be achieved but, whilst it may be the right thing for Britain, is it the right thing for the poor innocents of Iraq and Syria who just want to get on with their lives without facing death at every street corner.  Let's hope they are not forgotten in this power struggle.
But no one wants to think about that when we can have Black Friday do they. Another marketing initiative that is already losing ground in the UK as ASDA and others turn their back on the US invention.  What is pretty certain is that, if the marketeers can make Black Friday 'a thing' in the UK, it will skew the retail sales figures but will it make us buy more? Who knows.
Either way, as much of America and some of the UK goes shopping, the financial markets are more focussed on the 2nd release of UK economic growth data for the third quarter of the year. The first estimate put that growth rate at an annualised 2.3% and there are some who thing that will be revised to a slightly higher number. If it is, Sterling, which has slipped on the week, will rebound in a healthy manner. However, the pound took a knock first thing this morning when the consumer confidence index slipped to levels we last saw in May as consumers worried about the future of the economy. That wasn't a dramatic move; the Pound dropped by half a cent against the Euro, but the consumer sector is such a massive part of the UK economy, that any downturn is significant.
We also get Eurozone consumer and industrial confidence indi9ces this morning. There is a chance we will see an uptick in the industrial one but consumers in Europe are still concerned about the state of the Eurozone economy and unemployment is still horribly elevated. The Euro-US Dollar rate is  tenuously holding on to the $1.06 level but we have to wonder how long that would last if today's data is poor on both fronts. Traders also have an eye on the European Central Bank which is likely to broaden the money supply and move their already negative deposit rate into further negative territory next week. Whilst these moves are widely expected, the reality of such a move will be a forthright message that all is not well in the Eurozone 8 years after the credit crunch.
Knock knock
A guy hears a knock on his door. He opens the door but there is no one around, just a snail on his porch. He mutters something about ‘damned kids’, and in his anger, he kicks the snail down the garden before slamming the door. About 6 weeks later there is a knock at the door and when he answers it, there is no one around but he sees the same snail on his doormat. The snail looks up at him and says, "What the hell was that all about?"