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November 2016

2-minute silence at 11:00 GMT

Published: Friday 11 November 2016

  • 2-minute silence at 11:00 GMT
  • Sterling up on improving data
  • Quiet data day but more fireworks next week

Whilst the handshake from Donald Trump brought an unavoidable grimace to Barack Obama’s face, the current President did at least meet Trump and was polite to the man who has been questioning his birth details for the past four years. That though, was a side line to the fact that markets seem to have taken the election of Donald Trump in their stride; a very curious development indeed.
This is Veteran’s Day in America and many countries – quite rightly in my opinion – marking the silencing of the guns of World War One on the day that it actually happened.  So, on the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month, Halo Financial staff will be marking the moment that the curiously named Great War ended with a two minute silence.
And while on the subject of guns being silenced, after a week that has been full of bangs; from fireworks celebrating the capture of Guy Fawkes, to the fireworks around the US elections, Thursday was quite demure; and Friday is more of a whimper.
Sterling remains stronger than it has been for a fortnight; pressing the tops of its recent trading ranges and offering some respite to those who need to sell sterling for any reason. A report from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) stating that a ‘dire shortage’ of supply is causing house prices to continue rising will shore up the Pound. Whether the Pound can make further headway is a moot point and, with no meaningful UK data today, it is unlikely to happen before the weekend. However, with thinly traded markets on a day when so many traders are away from their desks, anything could happen.
The US Dollar; while weaker against the Pound, has strengthened in most other exchange rates and, as is always the case when the USD strengthens a little bit, some analysts are getting their names in the papers by predicting it will go to parity (1:1) against the Euro. Maybe, but there is a lot of ground to cover before that happens.
Next week brings a flurry of data, including UK industrial and manufacturing data and UK inflation figures. The latter is vitally important, as the Bank of England mulls over its options. They appear to be unwilling to add further monetary stimulus, but a very strong inflation number on the back of strong property price data might kill the monetary easing option stone dead. That would strength the Pound, so beware.
Meanwhile, have a great weekend.


A man in a cinema notices what looks like a badger sitting next to him.
"Sorry, but are you a badger?" asked the incredulous man.
"Yes, I am," said the badger with an air of nonchalance.
"What are you doing sitting in a cinema?" asked the man.
The badger took another handful of popcorn and replied, "Well, the book was so atmospheric and Time Out gave the movie five stars."  

Today's Major Economic Releases

Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
GBP 09:30 UK: Construction Output month-on-month -1.5% 0.2%
USD 14:00 Federal Open Market Committee Member Fischer speaks    
USD 15:00 US: Preliminary Consumer Sentiment 87.2 87.4
USD 15:00 US: Preliminary Inflation Expectations 2.4% 2.4%
CAD 15:30 Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks    

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Daily Currency Analysis by David Johnson

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