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November 2016

Limited data to work with today

Published: Wednesday 16 November 2016

  • Limited data to work with today
  • Brexit may be delayed – says Sky News
  • Oil stable ahead of Doha meeting

UK unemployment and wages data is the key theme for the Pound today. The forecasts suggest wages are easing higher whilst employment remains strong. Sterling has bounced back to €1.16 ahead of that data and in spite of yesterday’s inflation data, showing a drop back to 0.9% in October. That caught traders by surprise but wasn’t shocking enough to cause a GBP decline.
 
Oil prices are rising in spite of a rise in US stocks but in reaction to an expected deal at this Friday’s Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting in Doha to limit production. That caused the US Dollar to pause and we start Wednesday with the USD exchange rates pretty much exactly where they were at the same time yesterday, in spite of positive retail sales numbers released yesterday afternoon.  Whether this afternoon's industrial production data will change that status quo is unknowable right now. However, the forecasts would suggest the data will be positive for the USD, so early USD buying may be the best risk management solution today.
 
Other than these few morsels, today’s data diary lacks much substance. Nonetheless, traders will have enough to ponder after Sky News is suggesting there will be a two-year delay in Brexit due to a lack of civil servants who can manage the transition. There is also the Trump factor to contend with, as he is reported to have sneaked out for a family meal without telling the press. I am not a fan of Mr Trump, but I think I would do the same.
 
And I don’t know how I missed it, but 38-year-old former policeman, Ben Hooper, from Gloucestershire, is in the midst of an epic swim across the Atlantic. He set off from Senegal on 14th November to swim the 1,900 miles to Brazil wearing a swimsuit that makes him invisible to sharks…we hope. You can follow his progress on his website, swimthebigblue.com. We wish him every success.
 

The challenge

 
A multi-millionaire decides to throw a lavish party for his 50th birthday. During this party he grabs the microphone and announces to his guests that down in the garden of his mansion he has a second swimming pool but this one is full of piranhas. “I will give three wishes to the person who is brave enough to swim across that pool.”
 
Many of the guests are intrigued and they meander down to the other pool to chatter about the shoal of piranhas that circulate around the clear water. Suddenly, there is a splash and all the guests turn to see a man swimming like a demon across the pool.
 
The piranhas turn and start to chase across to catch him but the man is very fast, driven by adrenalin and a desire to stay in one piece. The guy reaches the side and he gets out of the pool just before a million teeth get to him.
 
He hunches over, panting and spitting out water as he tries to get his breath back. The multi-millionaire grabs the microphone and says, 'I am a man of my word, you are the bravest man I have ever seen. That was amazing.
 
You have three wishes and that can be for anything I own, anything I can do for you…anything. So, hero, what will it be?”
 
The guy takes the microphone and, between gasps for air,  says, 'Why don't we start with the name of the scumbag that pushed me in!'
 
 

Today's Major Economic Releases
 

 
Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
GBP 09:30 UK: Average Earnings Index 2.3% 2.3%
GBP 09:30 UK: Claimant Count Change 0.7k 1.9k
GBP 09:30 UK: Unemployment Rate 4.9% 4.9%
CAD 13:30 Canada: Manufacturing Sales month-on-month 0.9% -0.2%
USD 13:30 US: Producer Price Index (PPI) 0.3% 0.3%
USD 13:30 US: Core Producer Price Index (PPI) 0.2% 0.2%
USD 14:15 US: Capacity Utilization Rate 75.4% 75.5%
USD 14:15 US: Industrial Production month-on-month 0.1% 0.2%
USD 15:30 US: Crude Oil Inventories 2.4m 0.4m

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Daily Currency Analysis by David Johnson

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