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November 2016

Sterling slips ahead of Brexit debate in the Lords and Autumn Statement

Published: Monday 21 November 2016

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  • Sterling slips ahead of Brexit debate in the Lords and Autumn Statement
  • USD awaits FED minutes
  • UK GDP second estimate important for Sterling 

What a fab weekend of sport. Andy Murray was crowned the ATP World Tour Champion and World Number One. Few of us ever thought we would see a British player do that in our lifetimes.  We even saw Andy Murray smile. Hurrah for that! And the autumn internationals were great spectacles. Italy beating South Africa was an upset and the doggedly committed Japanese team very nearly embarrassed a decidedly average looking Wales. These games have been so entertaining to watch. 

The markets were, for the first time in ages, less exciting. Friday was marked by some profit taking which weakened the Pound slightly, strengthened the USD slightly and shuffled the pack elsewhere. This doesn’t reflect the growing concern over the Anti-EU sentiment in the Netherland and some other EU states. Nor does it reflect the nervousness over some of the more concerning appointments being made by Donald Trump as he creates his cabinet of ‘advisors’.
 
The UK’s departure from the EU will be a big talking point this week as the select committee in the House of Lords debates the triggering of Article 50. Unless that unleashes a significant change of position from the 2nd House, that will be overshadowed by the Chancellor’s Autumn tatement on Wednesday.
 
It isn’t clear whether Phillip Hammond will play it safe at this uncertain time or opt to make more radical plans; further distancing the Theresa May Government from their predecessors. That’s what makes the markets so interesting.
 
And, as if politics wasn’t already divisive enough, there are rumours that Tony Blair might re-enter British politics. Wow! The after dinner speech circuit must be quiet.
 
This week brings a number of significant data releases, including YJ public sector borrowing and the 2nd estimate of British economic growth in Q3. From the US, we’ll get the minutes form the last FOMC interest rate-setting meeting. The markets will be looking for clues as to whether the Fed will hike rates in December. We will also get some Canadian and Australasian numbers to keep things lively.
 
And finally, US and Peruvian authorities have taken part in an operation to break up a counterfeiting gang. 1,500 agents and officers were involved but it was worth it. They seized $30 million worth of forged US Dollar bills and €50,000 worth of dodgy Euro bills. 48 people were also arrested in Lima in the operation which is the largest haul of fake notes the US has ever achieved. So, if you have recently travelled back from Peru, check your change.
 

Short and sweet Monday Jokes

 
1.        To the people who stole my Microsoft Office. You’ll pay for that. You have my Word.
2.       What do you say to your sister when she’s crying? Are you having a crisis?
3.       Rick Astley has a massive animated movie collection and he’s happy to lend any of them out except one. film. He’s never gonna give you UP.
4.       I was going to buy a pocket calculator but then I realised I don’t really care how many pockets I have.
5.       Thank you pavements for keeping me off the streets.
6.      There was a really stuck-up criminal going down stairs. That’s con-descending isn’t it.
7.       I am going out with a girl who plays football. I think she’s a keeper.
8.      Never trust graphs. They are always plotting something.
9.      What do you call a man with no shins or calves? Tony.
10.    What do you get when you combine rhetoric with humour?
 
 

Today's Major Economic Releases
 

 
Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
CAD 13:30 Canada: Wholesale Sales month-on-month 0.8% 0.3%
AUD 15:30 Australia: The Conference Board Leading Index  0.0% 0.0%
EUR 16:00 European Central Bank President Draghi speaks    
 
Daily Currency Analysis by David Johnson

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