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November 2016

Sterling spikes on soft transition comments from PM

Published: Tuesday 22 November 2016

  • Sterling spikes on soft transition comments from Prime Minister
  • Euro weak on European Central Bank's extended low interest rates
  • UK markets paused ahead of Autumn statement

Sterling started the week on the back foot. Traders had one eye on the Autumn Statement, due on Wednesday. However, when Prime Minister, Theresa May announced that she was working towards a softer edged transition away from the EU, that cheered traders and Sterling whipped up by a cent and a half against the Euro and a similar amount against the USD. It was also stronger against most other currencies. This morning’s government borrowing data will be the Pound’s next hurdle. A small decline in the amount of public sector borrowing is forecast and that would help the Pound maintain its strength in the lead up to the Autumn Statement. We’ll also get the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) industrial trends survey this morning. Last month’s index was pretty dire, so any improvement in that will be seen as positive. There is also a debate in the House of Lords this afternoon about the triggering of Article 50. Hopefully some of the Lords and Ladies will be awake for that one.
European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi has reiterated his view that EU interest rates will stay low for an extended period. That will have contributed to the Euro’s falls against the Pound and USD. We will get the EU consumer confidence index this morning and that is expected to be less awful than last month’s. So there is scope for a little bit of EUR recovery.
That is about all we have to discuss today. Obviously Donald Trump’s assertion that Nigel Farage be the UK ambassador to America bears a discussion… Not a chance …there, that’s done.


A married woman’s husband had been in an car accident and was brain dead. The Doctor told her that there was some good news, though. They had perfected a new brain transplant technique and they told her she was fortunate because there were three fresh brains in the brain bank from which to choose.
Apparently, a terrorist explosion had killed a number of politicians at a conference in London and, whilst some of the brains had been used, some were still available. “Now, the NHS doesn’t cover this new technique, so there will be a cost.” Said the Doctor. When the woman asked about the cost, the Doc said, “Angela Merkel’s brain is available for £5,000. Of course it only works in German, so many people have passed that one by. Theresa May’s brain is over on that shelf. That one is £20,000. It’s good but quite expensive, so many people have shunned it. Or we’ve got Donald trump’s brain over there. That’s £500.”
“Crikey. Why so cheap?” says the woman. “Well that one has a problem,” said the doctor. “It can’t remember what it said 5 minutes earlier.” 


Today's Major Economic Releases

Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
GBP 09:30 UK: Public Sector Net Borrowing 10.1b 5.9b
GBP 11:00 Confederation of British Industry Industrial Orders Expectations -17 -8
GBP 11:30 Monetary Policy Committee Member Forbes speaks    
CAD 13:30 Canada: Core Retail Sales month-on-month 0.0% 0.6%
CAD 13:30 Canada: Retail Sales month-on-month -0.1% 0.7%
EUR 15:00 EU: Consumer Confidence -8 -8
USD 15:00 US: Existing Home Sales 5.47m 5.43m
Daily Currency Analysis by David Johnson

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