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November 2016

Election day in the USA

Published: Tuesday 08 November 2016

  • Election day in the USA
  • Chinese exports dive
  • German manufacturing slows

China’s exports plunged in September by 7.3% and capital outflows dropped China’s foreign exchange reserves to the lowest level since January. That produced concerns that China will become more protective of its reserves and the Yuan weakened to nearly six year lows on the news. Perversely, that weakness will help exports, so there is some natural balance to these things.
US stock markets rallied late yesterday after polls showed Hilary Clinton in the lead, as America decides on its next President. Out of 300,000,000 people, these two are the cream of the crop, the brightest and most eligible candidates and there is no controversy in that statement at all…
By 5am UK time tomorrow, we will know the outcome, or we will know that it is too tight to call and Donald Trump will get a chance to decide whether to concede defeat. More importantly, the US Dollar could well be mahooosiveley volatile. It’s a technical term, but I am sure you get the meaning! As mentioned in yesterday’s daily report, there are tools available to you that will manage your risk and offer opportunities to benefit from spikes. Call in and any one of our team will be happy to explain and help you with this.
We saw this morning’s data confirm a slowdown in German industrial production. The Euro was unmoved, but it is a worry if the largest economy in the Eurozone is struggling with exports. The strength of the Euro is no help in this regard, but slower demand in overseas markets will have an effect as well.
The UK government is convinced it will win an appeal against the recent High Court ruling over Parliament having to vote on the triggering of Article 50. EU exit minister, David Davis, revealed his conviction that it would happen by April 2017. Sterling was unmoved, but maintained its recently recovered level of strength. This morning’s UK industrial and manufacturing performance data will be crucial to the direction of the Pound and this afternoon’s National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) estimate of economic growth in October could boost Sterling if the numbers are as strong as the forecasts. However, shock waves from the US election will also have an impact.
And, while they are cuter than a cute thing, Australian authorities are urging people not to try to smuggle koalas out of the country. A woman was arrested at Brisbane airport after she declared a baby koala in her backpack. She said she found it and had been caring for it. The poor little critter is being cared for by experts, as he was found to be dehydrated. No one has explained where the woman was planning to get all the eucalyptus leaves from when she got back home.


Two guys meet up in a bar.
The first one asks, “Did you hear the news – Mike is dead??!!!”
“Woah, what the hell happened to him?”
“Well he was on his way over to my house the other day and when he arrived outside the house he didn’t brake properly and boom – he hit the curb, the car flipped over and he crashed through the sunroof – went flying through the air and smashed through my upstairs bedroom window.”
“What a horrible way to die!”
“No, no, he survived that, that didn’t kill him at all. So, he’s landed in my upstairs bedroom and he’s all covered in broken glass on the floor. Then, he spots the big old antique wardrobe we have in the room and reaches up for the handle to try to pull himself up. He’s just dragging himself up when bang, this massive wardrobe comes crashing down on top of him, crushing him and breaking most of his bones.”
“What a way to go, that’s terrible!”
“No, no, that didn’t kill him, he survived that. He managed to get the wardrobe off him and crawled out onto the landing, he tried to pull himself up on the banister but under his weight, the banister broke and he goes falling down on to the first floor. In mid-air, all the broken banister poles spin and fall on him, pinning him to the floor, sticking right through him.”
“Now that is the most unfortunate way to go!”
“No no, that didn’t kill him, he even survived that. So he’s on the downstairs landing, just beside the kitchen. He crawls in to the kitchen, tries to pull himself up on the stove, but reached for a big pot of boiling hot water, whoosh, the whole thing came down on him and burned most of his skin off him.”
“Man, what a way to go!”
“Nope, he survived that! He’s lying on the ground, covered in boiling water and he spots the phone and tries to pull himself up, to call for help, but instead he grabs the light switch and pulls the whole thing off the wall and the water and electricity didn’t mix and so he got electrocuted, wallop, 10,000 volts shot through him.”
“Now that is one awful way to go!”
“No, he survived that…”
“Hold on now, just how the hell did he die?”
“I shot him!”
“You shot him? What the hell did you shoot him for?”
“The guy was destroying my house.”

Today's Major Economic Releases

Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
USD All Day US Presidential Election    
USD All Day US Congressional Elections    
GBP 09:30 UK: Manufacturing Production month-on-month 0.2% 0.6%
CAD 13:15 Canada: Housing Starts 219k 195k
CAD 13:15 Canada: Building Permits month-on-month 10.4% -5.6%
USD 15:00 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary 5.44m 5.67m

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Daily Currency Analysis by David Johnson

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