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October 2016

Euro weaker on European Central Bank comments

Published: Friday 21 October 2016

  • Euro weaker on European Central Banks comments
  • UK government borrowing decline expected 
  • Canadian Dollar strong on oil and upcoming data

Big day for Theresa May (I know…poetic lines just stream out of me unknowingly). Britain’s Prime Minister is attending an EU meeting and the elephant in the room cannot be avoided. No doubt we will get a blow by blow account through the next 24 hours and other EU leaders are already acting like dumped teenagers in their demands, but German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, said that Theresa May has already laid a good foundation for further cooperation with regard to the Brexit negotiations. We know it is greatly in Germany’s interests to get a deal that allows them to export cars to the UK. Britain takes a fifth of all German car exports. That’s a significant statistic to start Friday with!
Europe was in the news for other reasons yesterday after the European Central Bank (ECB) left the Eurozone base rate on hold, but Mario Draghi hinted that further bond buying may be forthcoming as the ECB continues in its struggle to inject some life into the melancholic Eurozone economies. The Euro is a tad weaker this morning.
The data for today comes from the UK’s government borrowing data, which should show another small fall in the level of public sector borrowing. That would help the Pound.
We also get inflation and retail sales data from Canada. Recovering oil and energy prices have boosted the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and we are forecasting slight improvements in both sets of data due for release today. So we ought to assume the currency will head into the weekend with a spring in its step. Beware if you need to buy CAD.
I must say, I loved the speech Hilary Clinton gave last night in which she suggested Donald Trump has trouble reading autocue machines because he has to translate the text from its original Russian. Ouch!
And Kemper County, Mississippi, has had enough of creepy clowns, so they have banned clowns for the time being. Personally, I have always found clowns to be creepy.  An outright ban would be just fine, thank you very much.


A man came home from work and found his three children outside playing in the mud, still in their pyjamas with empty food boxes and wrappers strewn all around the lawn.
The door of his wife’s car was open, as was the front door to the house and the garage door; and there was no sign of the dog. He stepped tentatively through the front door and found an even bigger mess. A lamp had been knocked over and the throw rug was wadded against one wall. In the front room, the TV was blaring a cartoon channel, and the family room was strewn with toys and various items of clothing. The ironing board was up and the iron was switched on.  In the kitchen, dishes filled the sink, breakfast food was spilled on the counter, the fridge door was open wide, dog food was scattered around the floor, a broken glass lay under the table, and a small pile of sand was spread by the back door. Some had been kicked across the floor and a neat pile of mud sat on the mat.
He quickly headed up the stairs, stepping over toys and more piles of clothes, looking for his wife. He was worried she might be ill, or that something serious had happened.
He was met by a small trickle of water as it made its way out the bathroom door and dripped down the stairs. As he peered inside the bathroom, he found wet towels, scummy soap and ducks, boats and water pistols dumped everywhere. Miles of toilet paper lay in a heap with a length of paper leading to the toilet itself, where the roll was floating in the loo.  Toothpaste had been smeared over the mirror, sink and walls.
Even more concerned now, he rushed to the bedroom and found his wife still curled up in the bed, wearing her bathrobe and reading a novel.
She looked up at him, smiled, and asked how his day went. He looked at her bewildered and asked:
“What happened here today?”
She smiled again and answered, “You know every day when you come home from work and you ask me what in the world I do all day?”
“Yes, what about it?” he replied.
“Well, today I didn’t do it.”

Today's Major Economic Releases 


Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
EUR Day Two EU Economic Summit    
CAD 13:30 Canada: Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) 0.0% 0.2%
CAD 13:30 Canada: Core Retail Sales month-on-month -0.1% 0.4%
CAD 13:30 Canada: Consumer Price Index (CPI) -0.2% 0.2%
CAD 13:30 Canada: Retail Sales month-on-month -0.1% 0.5%
EUR 15:00 EU: Consumer Confidence -8 -8

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Daily Currency Analysis by David Johnson

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