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October 2016

GBP holds on as UK manufacturing improves

Published: Tuesday 25 October 2016

  • GBP holds on as UK manufacturing improves
  • BOE's Carney testifies to the Upper House
  • Improving Eurozone data supports shared currency

The UK government is not being drawn into revealing its negotiating stance with regards to the Brexit deal and quite rightly so. Anyone who has ever negotiated on anything knows that would make a nonsense of the whole process.

Sterling held its own on Monday after the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reported quiet optimism amongst industrialists. Export orders buoyed the market although employment in this sector fell for the first time in six years.
The Euro also held on after manufacturers reported their best Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for 30 months. Eurozone stock markets rose on the news and the euro made marginal gains against the USD and some other currencies. We also saw a slight uptick in the German Information and Forschung (IFO) business indices this morning and Italian Manufacturing data was very strong in August; that was also published this morning. So there is life in the Eurozone economy and that is a good thing.
Other than the US Consumer Confidence data, which is forecast to be quite upbeat, there really isn’t a lot of hard data to work with today. However, we will get a testimony from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney when he visits the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee. Preparation for Brexit will be the hot topic, as well as the level at which inflation forces the Bank of England (BoE) to hike the base rate. We will watch with interest.
And I don’t want to depress anyone, but it will be Christmas in two months exactly. Don’t worry, though, that means there are sixty sleeps before you have to start your Christmas shopping.  Yay!

In Court

Judge, “Do you understand that you have sworn to tell the truth?”
Plaintiff, “I do, your honour”.
Judge, “And do you know what will happen if you do not tell the truth?”
Plaintiff, “Yes, Sir, we’ll win this case”.

Today's Major Economic Releases 

Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
USD 14:00 US: House Price Index (HPI) month-on-month 0.5% 0.5%
USD 15:00 US: Consumer Confidence 104.1 101.5
USD 15:00 US: Richmond Manufacturing Index -9 -5
GBP 15:35 Bank of England Governor Carney speaks    
EUR 16:30 European Central Bank President Draghi speaks    

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Daily Currency Analysis by David Johnson

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