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September 2016

Fed unlikely to hike rates next week

Published: Wednesday 14 September 2016

  • Fed unlikely to hike rates next week 
  • UK inflation rate unchanged from July
Speculations of a September Fed hike cooled this week but there is still much expectation of another hike by December. The development in 10 year yield (TNX) continues to provide support for the Dollar and in particular against high yield currencies such as the Aussie and the Kiwi. 

In the UK the average cost of everyday household goods and services went up by 0.6% in the year to August. The UK inflation rate was unchanged from July. Rising food prices and air fares were the main catalyst for pushing prices higher. Economists had forecast inflation would rise to 0.7%, predicting the cheaper Pound would push prices higher.

UK Retail Prices Index were also released yesterday and dropped to 1.8% in August from 1.9% in July. Separate figures from the ONS suggest inflationary pressures are building for businesses bringing in materials from abroad. On average, materials and fuels bought by UK manufacturers rose by 7.6% in price. That was the fastest rise since December 2011, and compared with a rise of 4.1% in the year to July.

On the data front, New Zealand current account balance turned into NZD -0.95b deficit in Q2. Tonight sees the release of Q2 GDP data from New Zealand and then employment data from Australia. 

Short jokes

Why did the physics teacher break with the biology teacher?
There was no chemistry.
What did the stamp say to the envelope?
You stick with me and I will take you places!
What did the tall chimney say to the small chimney?
Hey, you’re way too young to smoke.
What did one candle say to the other?
I’ll be going out tonight. 

Today's Major Economic Releases 

Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
GBP 09:30 UK: Average earnings index 3m/y 2.4% 2.1%
GBP 09:30 UK: Claimant count change -8.6k 1.7k
GBP 09:30 UK: Unemployment rate 4.9% 4.9%
EUR 10:00 EU: Industrial production m/m 0.6% -0.8%
USD 13:30 US: Import prices m/m 0.1% -0.1%
USD 15:30 US: Crude oil inventories -14.5m 2.8m
NZD 23:45 New Zealand: GDP q/q 0.7% 1.1%

Daily Currency Analysis by Michael Hart

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