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September 2016

Sterling recovers

Published: Tuesday 27 September 2016

  • Sterling recovers
  • Chinese profits at 35 month high
  • Data diary virtually empty today
I don’t think we really learned much from the first televised debate between Clinton and Trump; apart perhaps that the conspiracy theorists’ suggestions that Hilary has some kind of debilitating disorder look untrue. Hands up anyone who made it to the end without dozing off. Neither did I. The markets were unaffected.
Sterling did a slide and bounce thing over the last 24 hours. The upbeat stories about the resilience of the UK economy appeared to have fallen on deaf ears but perhaps there was just a time lag before the Pound regained its equilibrium. There is nothing in the UK data diary today, so don’t expect fireworks from the Pound.
In fact, the only interesting data today is from the Eurozone, from whence we are expecting slightly less bad industrial orders and marginally better money supply figures for the Eurozone itself. The Euro is treading water and this data is probably not significant enough to boost it but there is little else to focus on. The President of the European Central Bank reiterated his concerns that the ECB cannot revive the economy alone and urged governments to take more action. Whether that will trigger a response within the EU is another matter.
We heard overnight that Chinese industrial profits surged last month, hitting a 35 month high. A bit more confidence in the vast Chinese economy would help stabilise the global economy but one stat does not a recovery make.
Aside from foreign exchange, oil prices are dominating market conversations. Iran is suggesting there is little chance of a deal to restrict supply and therefore raise the price of crude oil. That pulls oil lower and strengthens the USD.
And apropos nothing, there are rumours that Disney is preparing a bid for Twitter. 

And speaking of Twitter

The short message format of Twitter does help to define the one-liner joke. Here are some examples.
  • The journey of a thousand miles begins with a broken fan belt and a flat tire...
  • Yawning is your bodies way of saying 20% battery remaining.
  • Netflix gives you 15 seconds between episodes to decide if you're doing anything with your life today.
  • Can't wait for summer so I can stop complaining about how cold it is and start complaining on how hot it is.
  • I hate people who complain about being single every 3 minutes. 90% of my socks are single & you don't see them crying about it.
  • I named my dog "5 miles" so I can tell people I walk 5 miles every day.
  • Just changed my Facebook name to ‘No one’ so when I see stupid posts I can click like and it will say ‘No one likes this’.
  • Lord help me to be the person my dog thinks I am...     

Today's Major Economic Releases 

Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
GBP 11:00 UK: CBI realized sales 9 8
USD 14:45 US: Flash services PMI 51.0 51.1
USD 15:00 US: CB consumer confidence 101.1 98.6
USD 15:00 US: Richmond manufacturing index -11 -2
USD 16:15 FOMC member Fischer speaks    

Daily Currency Analysis by David Johnson

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