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September 2016

Carney says UK economic outlook is positive

Published: Wednesday 28 September 2016

  • Carney says UK economic outlook is positive
  • Federal Reserve speakers abound
  • German consumer confidence dips but outlook is positive, says Gfk
What is it about England football managers that makes them (A) naive, (B) greedy and (C) too stupid to learn from other’s mistakes? Bye-bye Sam and bring on the next contender. Oh and bring on the next fake Sheik or shady far eastern businessman wink - wink.
 
The lack of data yesterday allowed most exchange rates to drift in a sea of serenity bathed in the warm glow of nothingness. Mind you, Sterling recovered a little of its dignity and returned to $1.30 and €1.16. That followed comments from the Governor of the Bank of England who sees positive long-term prospects for the UK economy and has responded positively to the extra stimulus provided by the BOE.
 
The US Dollar maintained its strength after two Federal Reserve members espoused views that the tighter labour market is pushing wages up and that the US economy could handle a rate hike right now. These are just two voices amidst many who are more cautious but such upbeat messages generally support the currency. The Dollar was also buoyed by the media’s general agreement that Hilary Clinton’s was the better performance in the US Presidential debate. Trump's policies are more protectionist and that would be bad for US trading partners. We have no less than 4 Fed speakers later today and we will see the US durable goods orders data as well. Those figures are expected to be quite bad though, so a weaker USD is a possibility in later trade.
 
I know I am darting around time-wise but this morning started with a dip in German consumer confidence, although the compilers of the report, Gfk, says the trend is still positive in spite of the post-Brexit September dip. We will get Italian consumer confidence data this morning as well and that index dropped in August, so the September data will be very interesting.
 
Other than these amuse-bouche items, the data is sparse today but there will be enough speakers to keep things lively.
 
And a company in Maryland is promoting a brand of herb-enhanced coffee called ‘Stiff Bull’ which, it is claimed, has similar properties to Viagra and the effects of which can last two or three days. I only mention this because you may spot some very curious activity in your local café or coffee shop and I think it is my duty to ensure you are forewarned.
 

An old joke

 
Two cows are standing in a field. One says, “What do you think about this awful mad cow disease?” and the other one says, “It doesn’t affect me, I’m a helicopter.” 
 


Today's Major Economic Releases 

 
Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
USD 13:30 US: Core durable goods orders m/m 1.3% -0.5%
USD 13:30 US: Durable goods orders m/m 4.4% -1.0%
USD 15:00 FED Chair Yellen testifies    
USD 15:10 FOMC member Bullard speaks    
EUR 15:30 ECB President Draghi speaks    
USD 15:30 US: Crude oil inventories -6.2m 2.4m

Daily Currency Analysis by David Johnson



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