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September 2016

UK data remains remarkably resilient post-referendum

Published: Monday 05 September 2016

  • UK data remains remarkably resilient post-referendum 
  • Labor bank holiday for US and Canadian markets
August is traditionally a tough month for job numbers and 2016 proved no exception. Non-Farm payrolls came in slightly weaker than expected on Friday at 151,000 against an expectation of 180,000. This means it is more likely that the Federal Reserve will put any rate hikes on hold for the time being. The previous two readings had been well above expectations so the net effect is that job growth is still fairly stable but an imminent hike is now much less likely although not yet off the table. There is a raft of Fed speakers due on the wires so markets will undoubtedly take their cue from any new commentary that may emerge.
UK data has confounded the Brexit doom mongers by remaining remarkably resilient post-referendum. Retail Sales, manufacturing and construction PMI's have all been reported better than expected and would suggest that the UK will avoid a recession that many feared was likely if we did vote to leave. Manufacturing was supported by a weaker Pound so it will be interesting to see how the service sector fared in August. A stronger figure is expected, particularly as it would be coming off the back of a very low base. A better number could see the short squeeze in the Pound extended.
There is a raft of tier one macro data due this week with service sector PMI from the UK and the US version released tomorrow afternoon. The European Central bank meeting later in the week is unlikely to offer us anything new so the main focus will be on Fed speakers before the black out ahead of the meeting.


A police officer attempts to stop a car for speeding and the guy gradually increases his speed until he’s topping 100 mph. The man eventually realizes he can't escape and finally pulls over.
The cop approaches the car and says, "It's been a long day and my shift is almost over, so if you can give me a good excuse for your behaviour, I'll let you go."
The guy thinks for a few seconds and then says, "My wife ran away with a cop about a week ago. I thought you might be that officer trying to give her back!" 


Today's Major Economic Releases 

Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
EUR 09:00 EU: Final services PMI 53.1 52.8
EUR 09:30 EU: Sentix investor confidence 4.2 5.1
GBP 09:30 UK: Services PMI 47.4 49.1
EUR 10:00 EU: Retail sales m/m 0.0% 0.5%

FX Research by David Johnson

Daily Currency Analysis with Joe De Berniere

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