- Important North American economic announcements despite holiday week
- Politics pushing Pound down again
- Will Eurozone unemployment remain at current lows?
Important North American economic announcements despite holiday week
You would be forgiven for thinking that it may be quiet in the US for Thanksgiving week, but there are a number of key economic announcements expected and, as always, a public holiday can lead to increased activity in the currency markets.
Just before the US public holiday, Wednesday 27th November heralds the release of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the third quarter of 2019 and is expected to show much the same growth estimates as those from Quarter 2. A figure around 1.9 percent would support comments previously from Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, about the stability of the American economy. It’s pretty stable, but not performing exceptionally well. There will also be consumer and employment data to deal with before the US markets can rest and be thankful.
The Canadian Current Account figures for the third quarter of 2019 will also be released on Thursday afternoon, while the USA celebrates Thanksgiving Day.
Politics pushing Pound down again
The Pound is dipping against a stronger US Dollar as reports filter through of Labour closing in on the Conservatives in the pre-election political party polls and as uncertainty mounts in the run up to the elections. A Conservative lead in the opinion polls is viewed by the markets as offering a clearer stance on Brexit and the potential future financial direction for the UK, perceived or otherwise, so any dip dents Sterling’s confidence. Investors are bound to be more jittery as the election draws closer.
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Will Eurozone unemployment remain at current lows?
Meanwhile, in Europe, there is a raft of important data and European speeches ahead, culminating in unemployment data for the Eurozone at the end of the week. Markets are not expecting much change from the previous month’s 11-year low of 7.5 percent on Friday, and that could potentially bolster the Euro, which has been under pressure against a number of its currency partners from disappointing economic data.
If Eurozone inflation figures are also encouraging, that could provide further fuel for the Euro. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected on Thursday 28th November. Forecasts are for an increase in this month’s inflation figures, and will work towards a mixed bag for the new head of the European Central Bank (ECB) to tackle. Investors will be watching these first results under Christine Lagarde’s new ECB stewardship closely for any positive news, as this should set the scene for whether the central bank’s stance will be more cautious or bullish.
There will also be consumer and business confidence indices, polls on the Eurozone business climate, producer price figures, and a number of sensitive sentiment indicators across the EU, so the combination of factors could move the Euro as the week unfolds.
New Zealand Dollar unscathed by important industry data
Overnight (UK time), New Zealand had their Trade Balance, export and import figures, the latest Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) speech and the NZ Financial Stability Report, which did not contain anything surprising. Overall, the New Zealand economy continues to bounce back from negativity, but is still susceptible to shocks from domestic issues, such as dairy prices, and global risks, particularly from international trade tensions and poor data from China, given Kiwi export-import relationships.
In the early hours of the morning tomorrow, Thursday 28th November, New Zealand gets the ANZ Business Confidence and Activity Outlook reports, which may influence NZD strength. The following day brings the ANZ Consumer Confidence report and housing data, so that could be a factor, too, not to mention any US-China trade developments and manufacturing/industry figures coming through next week.
More data drives activity Down Under
Australia gets some of their latest housing data around the same time, and there will be more to watch out for next week, along with import/export data and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decision later into the week.