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April

UK data offers positive surprises

Published: Tuesday 10 April 2018

  • Trump’s Lawyer gets raided by FBI
  • China suggests more liberal trade arrangements
​​By David Johnson
 

China’s President Xi Jinping surprised many when he vowed to liberalize automobile investment, protect intellectual property rights and to reduce the tariffs on car imports. These have all been demanded for a long time by European and US trade ministers. The Asian equities markets liked the news and European and US markets may well follow suit.
 
As yet, the US Dollar hasn’t strengthened on the news and that is a surprise; the US is likely to be a major beneficiary of such liberalisation. It seems US traders were distracted by the FBI raid on Donald Trump’s personal lawyer’s office in connection with payments to Stormy Daniels. They took some documents as well as bank records. The President is still denying any association with the ‘adult’ actress. The USD may recover a little composure later in the day and maybe the President will too.
 
Monday was notable for its lack of data but, the Pound did benefit from a strong report from the Halifax showing a sharp rise in house prices. Forecasters had expected a 0.1% rise but got a 1.5% move. Overnight we also had a positive retail sector report from the British retail Consortium. Once again, the forecasters suggested a small fall of 0.1% was coming but the actual result was growth of 1.4%. The UK economy is proving to be frustratingly resilient for those who would talk it down.
 
The other overnight news was a business confidence index from Australia and the result was disappointing. The markets had expected a rise to 12 on the index and that would have been an improvement on last month’s 9. The actual result was just 7. The Aussie Dollar is weaker as a result. 
 
The rest of today is pretty quiet on the data front. We get a couple of central bankers speaking (Bank of England and Federal Reserve) and we get Canadian housing market data. The prime data is probably the US producer price indices which are forecast to be a tad down on the previous month. I doubt it is enough to move the USD significantly but, as we have seen in the last 24 hours, forecasters are not doing a great job right now and results that differ substantially from the forecasts have the power to shift rates.
 
And Yoko Ono’s exhibition organisers are working with the Canadian police to find an elderly woman who stole a rock upon which Ono had written ‘Love Yourself’. That apparently made the rock worth $17,500. The exhibition is described as totally interactive and, it seems, one woman took that very literally. Quite why that is true I have no idea but couldn’t she just get another rock and write on that. Seems like a lot of fuss about nothing.
Watching

- Hello, is that Pizza2U?
- No sir, its Facebook pizza.
 
- Sorry, I must have dialled a wrong number?
- No sir, Facebook bought Pizza2U.
 
- Oh OK. Can you take my order please?
- Of course sir, do you want your usual?
 
- The usual? You know me?
- According to your caller ID, our database shows that your last 8 orders have been 13 inch pizza with pepperoni, mushrooms, bacon and onions, stuffed crust.
 
- That is scary....
- May I suggest instead, this time you have the thin crust with ricotta, arugula with sun dried tomato?
 
- Why the hell would I do that?
- Your cholesterol is not good, sir.
 
- My Cholesterol!….how do you know that?
- We cross referenced your phone number with your credit card details and address and we have the result of your blood tests for the last 7 years.
 
- Jeeze, Listen, I don’t want that pizza! I want my usual. I already take medicine for cholesterol...
- But you don’t take it regularly do you sir.  From our commercial database, 4 months ago, you only purchased a box with 30 daily cholesterol tablets at Boots, tooting.
 
- I bought more from a different chemist.
- It's not showing on your credit card statement.
 
- I paid in cash.
- But, you did not withdraw that much cash according to your bank statement.
 
- I have other sources of cash.
- This is not showing as per you last Tax form, unless you bought them from undeclared income source.
 
-WHAT THE HELL?
- I'm sorry, sir, we use only the information available to us with the intention of helping you.
 
- Enough! Forget the pizza. In fact, forget everything. I'm sick of Facebook, Twitter, WhatsApp, Google. I'm moving to an island without internet, without satellite TV, where there is no cell phone line and no one to watch me or spy on me.
- I understand sir but that’s going to be tricky with an expired passport!

Today's Major Economic Releases

Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
CAD 13:15 Canada: Housing Starts 230k 219k
CAD 13:30 Canada: Building Permits 5.6% -1.5%
USD 13:30 US: Producer Price Index 0.2% 0.1%
USD 13:30 US: Core Producer Price Index 0.2% 0.2%
USD 15:00 US: Final Wholesales Inventories 1.1% 0.8%

For more information, infographics and the latest currency insights, visit www.halofinancial.com/news