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February

More negative German data

Published: Thursday 07 February 2019

  • Bank of England on hold no doubt
  • Hell Bent May travels to Brussels
​​​​​​By David Johnson

Yesterday, European Council President, Donald Tusk neatly illustrated one of the reasons a lot of Brits voted to leave the EU in his arrogant, ill-mannered remarks regarding hell and brexiteers. Meanwhile, Theresa May is seeking further concessions from the EU and Jeremy Corbyn is laying out his terms, whilst no one wants a border in Ireland and no one wants a border between the UK and Ireland and the merry-go-round continues.
 
Sterling suffering from all sides
 
Sterling is looking as dizzy as the rest of us and is largely being buffeted by movements beyond the influence of UK data.  We will get the Bank of England’s interest rate decision and statement. No change is expected from the Bank of England (BoE) to the UK’s 0.75% base rate, but their take on the effects of Brexit et al will be of interest (excuse the pun).
 
US Dollar dips on lower interest rate talk
 
The US Dollar weakened a little when former Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, suggested the next rate move may be lower if the global slowdown starts to infect the US economy. If the US thinks it might avoid that kind of infection, it has another thing coming.  This afternoon brings little more than the weekly jobless claims data, which is so volatile that it is almost meaningless from a trader’s perspective; and we will have a speech from one Federal Reserve Chairman.
 
More economic warning signs from Germany
 
In Europe, the Italian Deputy Prime Minister met with representatives of France’s Yellow Vest protestors, much to the chagrin of the French Foreign Minister. We also had yet another warning sign from German industry as industrial production contracted by 0.4% last month against a forecast of 0.8% growth. Italian retail sales took a hammering in December and we await the European Central Bank’s economic bulletin to see what they make of the latest wave of negative Eurozone data. We will also get the EU’s economic forecast this morning… for what that’s worth. Their forecasts have not proven particularly reliable in the past.
 
Prepare for Yen movement
 
There is a smattering of Japanese data due overnight, so those with Yen requirements may wish to set out their stall in advance of that data.
 
Imagine…

And on this day in 1964, a four piece band from Liverpool landed in JFK airport in New York for their first US tour. They were called The Beatles. I wonder what happened to them?

The way grandma used to do it 

One day, a little girl was watching her mum prepare roast beef. She cut off the ends, wrapped it in string, seasoned it and set it in the roasting pan.

The little girl asked her mum why she cut off the ends of the roast. Mum replied, after some thought, that it was the way that her mother had done it and her roasts were great.
 
That night Grandma came to dinner and the little girl and her mum went to her and asked why she had cut the ends off of the roast before cooking. After some thought, grandma replied, that was the way her mother had done it and it always tasted lovely.
 
Now, great grandmother was quite old and in a nursing home. But the little girl went with her mum and grandma to see her and again asked the question.

Grandma looked at them a bit annoyed and said, "Well dear, I only ever had a little oven."

Today's Major Economic Releases

Market BST Data/Event Previous Expected
EUR 09:00 European Central Bank Economic Bulletin    
EUR 10:00 European Central Bank Economic Forecasts    
GBP 12:00 Bank of England Official Bank Rate 0.75% 0.75%
GBP 12:00 Bank of England Official Bank Rate Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
GBP 12:00 Bank of England Inflation Report    
GBP 12:00 Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary    
GBP 12:00 Bank of England Asset Purchase Facility 435b 435b
GBP 12:00 Bank of England Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
USD 13:30 US: Unemployment Claims 253k 220k

For more information, infographics and the latest currency insights, visit www.halofinancial.com/news