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Solid rise in UK GDP expected

Published: Friday 10 May 2019

  • Solid rise in UK GDP expected
  • CAD strength likely from building permits rise

The big data for Sterling today is the economic growth data. The lack of UK data during the latter part of yesterday, allowed the pound to decline somewhat but we are expecting GDP to have recovered to a rather healthy 1.8 percent in the year to March . We are also expecting an improvement in industrial production and a narrowing of the UK’s trade deficit. If the forecasts are accurate, Sterling will strengthen too. Expect the unexpected though. Too much optimism in forecasts can backfire when the real numbers are released. It is good not to be caught out.  

There is a plethora of EU data this morning but the headlines are the German trade balance, French employment data and speeches from two head honchos at the ECB. Traders will have to wade through umpteen other minor data releases to get to these and that is likely t see the Euro trade in a narrow range. 
Canadian employment data will be released this afternoon alongside, what is expected to be a solid upturn in the issuance of building permits. That is a sure sign of economic confidence and will strengthen the Canadian Dollar if the forecast prove accurate. 

This afternoon also brings US inflation data. A small rise is expected but the US Dollar is more heavily influenced by discussions with China and tweets about China re trade negotiations. The USD will more likely follow that story than the inflation data but we have a couple of Federal reserve speakers later too. 
And on this day in 1503, Christopher Columbus discovered the Cayman Islands. He promptly opened a shell company and refused to declare his personal interests, secreting his assets and thereby starting a tradition that continues to this day. 

Have a great weekend.


Bob's father called him into his room. The old man was in bed and he told Bob that he had been given only a few days to live. He explained that, as his wife had passed away a few years back, he had left everything to Bob in his will and, as he had been quite a shrewd investor, there was £15 million in the estate.
Bob was mortified that his father was dying and went out to the local bar for a drink. He had partaken of several strong spirits when he noticed a stunningly beautiful woman at the end of the bar. Normally he would have been too shy to even talk to her but, emboldened by his imminent wealth, he walked over and introduced himself before offering to buy her a drink.
Her name was Helen, she was very polite and kind and even better looking close up.  Bob began to relax and he decided to tell her about his mixed news from earlier in the day. She listened intently and, he was delighted that came with him when he invited her back to his place.
And the very next day there was a wedding and Helen became his stepmother. 


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