- Solid rise in UK GDP expected
- CAD strength likely from building permits rise
The big data for Sterling today is the economic growth data. The lack of UK data during the latter part of yesterday, allowed the pound to decline somewhat but we are expecting GDP to have recovered to a rather healthy 1.8 percent in the year to March . We are also expecting an improvement in industrial production and a narrowing of the UK’s trade deficit. If the forecasts are accurate, Sterling will strengthen too. Expect the unexpected though. Too much optimism in forecasts can backfire when the real numbers are released. It is good not to be caught out.
There is a plethora of EU data this morning but the headlines are the German trade balance, French employment data and speeches from two head honchos at the ECB. Traders will have to wade through umpteen other minor data releases to get to these and that is likely t see the Euro trade in a narrow range.
Canadian employment data will be released this afternoon alongside, what is expected to be a solid upturn in the issuance of building permits. That is a sure sign of economic confidence and will strengthen the Canadian Dollar if the forecast prove accurate.
This afternoon also brings US inflation data. A small rise is expected but the US Dollar is more heavily influenced by discussions with China and tweets about China re trade negotiations. The USD will more likely follow that story than the inflation data but we have a couple of Federal reserve speakers later too.
And on this day in 1503, Christopher Columbus discovered the Cayman Islands. He promptly opened a shell company and refused to declare his personal interests, secreting his assets and thereby starting a tradition that continues to this day.
Have a great weekend.