- Swathe of UK data this morning
- US Fed meeting minutes watched for rate cut signs
Aside from the all-consuming Brexit talk in the UK, there is a whole great big world out there. Inflation and trade battles are the preoccupation of the rest of the globe while the UK obsesses over the next Prime Minister and whether poor timid little Britain can operate in a world without its EU big brother to support it. MPs are quite embarrassing aren't they.
Today will bring a slew of UK economic data to identify just how poorly the UK economy is - or otherwise. The forecasts are largely positive. We will see (deep breath) industrial production, manufacturing production, economic growth, the trade balance and it all kicks off with construction output. As I say, the forecasts are mostly positive but there's many a slip twixt cup and lip. The Pound, which has been gently declining for a few weeks, may well recover a little of its mojo today. GBP buyers beware.
Moving on, Chinese consumer inflation was in line with the forecast of 2.7% in June while producer prices in Japan contracted by 0.5% last month; significantly worse than forecast. Fears over the state of the Chinese economy are very evident; what with it being such a massive consumer of raw materials and producer of cheap stuff for other markets.
The Bank of Canada meets this afternoon. No change is likely to their 1.75% base rate but talk of further rate hikes may be evident in their statement, so we will watch out for that.
The US central bank will also be in action this afternoon when they release the minutes from their last meeting. The Federal open Market Committee (FOMC) is under political pressure to release the brakes on the US economy by loosening the money supply. They are pondering the idea of allowing the US economy a little more platitude for growth, so these minutes are likely to be influential. Any hint that a rate cut is imminent could weaken the USD in normal circumstances because it reduces the yield on US investments but the contrary may be true if their stated intention is to boost US output. We shall see.
And on this day in 1040, Lady Godiva rode naked through Coventry trying to get taxes lowered. That makes a bit of a mockery of the Duchess of Sussex wanting no pictures taken of her whilst in public at Wimbledon…. fully clothed for goodness sake.